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New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Nissan Stadium · 92° · Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
TEN -1.5 · O/U 39.5
NYJ +110 · TEN -130
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
TEN -130
57%
model margin TEN by 2.4
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Coin flip
TEN -1.5
50%
0.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 39.5
53%
model total 47.7
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | 1360 | -4.9 | -5.6 | — | 0 |
| Tennessee Titans | 1356 | -1.8 | -3.8 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- NYJ +4 Elo
- Home field
- TEN +2.5 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- TEN by 2.4
- Market spread
- TEN -1.5
- Model total
- 47.7 vs 39.5
- Moneyline
- NYJ +110 · TEN -130
New York Jets injuries
- Tyler Baron DEOut
- Anez Cooper GInjured Reserve
- Chip Trayanum RBInjured Reserve
- Kingsley Jonathan DEInjured Reserve
- Tre Brown CBInjured Reserve
- VJ Payne SInjured Reserve
- Breece Hall RBQuestionable
- D'Angelo Ponds CBQuestionable
- Isaiah Davis RBQuestionable
- Joseph Ossai DEQuestionable
- Kenyon Sadiq TEQuestionable
- Nahshon Wright CBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Tennessee Titans injuries
- Dorian Mausi LBInjured Reserve
- Jaren Kanak TEInjured Reserve
- Jaylen Harrell LBInjured Reserve
- Joshua Williams CBInjured Reserve
- Kendell Brooks SInjured Reserve
- Milo Eifler LBInjured Reserve
- Tanoh Kpassagnon DEInjured Reserve
- Andre James CQuestionable
- Carnell Tate WRQuestionable
- Keldric Faulk DEQuestionable
- Mitchell Trubisky QBQuestionable
- Wan'Dale Robinson WRQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.