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San Francisco 49ers
13-6 last yr · #9 Elo
at
Sun, Dec 27, 4:25 PM ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City Chiefs
6-11 last yr · #17 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone San Francisco 49ers are 2.6 points better (#9 vs #17 of 32), and KC add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: SF third-down conversion ranks #1, KC defends it at #28; the other way KC #22 into SF's #14.
Who has the edge
Rating
Slight edge
SF
SF rated 2.6 points better on Elo (#17 vs #9).
Home & rest
Even
—
KC gets 0.0 points for home field.
Quarterback
not priced
—
Usual starters on both sides — Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy — no adjustment.
Passing game
Even
—
KC passing ranks #13, SF defends it at #25; the other way SF #8 into KC's #15.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
KC
KC rushing ranks #15, SF defends it at #23; the other way SF #13 into KC's #9.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
SF
SF third-down conversion ranks #1, KC defends it at #28; the other way KC #22 into SF's #14.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Slight edge
SF
KC −7.8 per game over the last five, SF −3.2.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
San Francisco 49ersKansas City Chiefs
1554 Elo · #9
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
SF +2.6 pts
1497 Elo · #17
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
Purdy · +6.7 EPA/g
QuarterbackStarter's value against what the team usually gets at quarterback. Only moves when someone other than the usual starter plays.
even
Mahomes · +7.0 EPA/g
+0.7 pts vs KC D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
SF +3.3 pts
−2.6 pts vs SF D
L W L W W · −3.2
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
SF +2.3 pts
L L L L L · −7.8
9 out/IR
InjuriesCount of players listed Out or on IR. Not priced beyond the quarterback.
not priced
4 out/IR
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
nflverse play-by-play + FTN charting · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸SF third-down conversion (#1) against a KC defense ranked #28 at stopping it
- ▸SF completion % over expected (#3) against a KC defense ranked #26 at stopping it
- ▸SF defense (#8 explosive rush rate allowed) against a KC offense ranked #31
- ▸KC turnovers / game (#5) against a SF defense ranked #28 at stopping it
- ▸KC defense (#7 yards / rush allowed) against a SF offense ranked #29
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
San Francisco 49ers offense vs Kansas City Chiefs defense
ranks of 32| SF off | KC def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 59% | 60% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 55% | 54% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 58% | 54% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | −0.7% | −0.3% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 29.3 | 31.6 | · |
| No-huddle | 4% | 11% | · |
| Shotgun | 55% | 67% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 22% | 21% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 1% | 6% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 6% | 11% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 67% | 59% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 21% | 34% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.18 | 4.45 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | +0.13#8▼ | +0.03#15▼ | SF |
| Pass success rate | 52%#3 | 46%#19 | SF |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 8.0%#15▼ | 7.7%#11 | · |
| Yards / dropback | 6.9#8 | 6.2#17 | SF |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 7.6 | 6.7 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 10% | 10% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 53% | 60% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | +4.7#3▼ | +2.3#26▼ | SF |
| YAC / completion | 4.6#28 | 5.5#25 | · |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 4.3%#4▲ | 6.0%#20 | SF |
| Scramble rate | 4.9% | 6.5% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.0%#28▲ | 2.0%#19 | KC |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 41 · M 26 · R 34 | L 45 · M 13 · R 43 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | −0.04#13▼ | −0.09#9▼ | · |
| Rush success rate | 42%#14 | 40%#11 | · |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 8.2%#25▼ | 7.6%#4▲ | KC |
| Yards / rush | 3.7#29 | 3.9#7 | KC |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 35 · M 27 · R 38 | L 40 · M 24 · R 36 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 51%#1 | 44%#28 | SF |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 65%#5 | 53%#7 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.42#31▲ | 0.76#27 | · |
| Plays / game | 62 | 57 | · |
Kansas City Chiefs offense vs San Francisco 49ers defense
ranks of 32| KC off | SF def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 66% | 60% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 62% | 57% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 61% | 56% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | +3.9% | −2.3% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 29.1 | 29.8 | · |
| No-huddle | 2% | 11% | · |
| Shotgun | 81% | 66% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 15% | 23% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 14% | 6% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 9% | 9% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 50% | 54% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 20% | 22% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.15 | 4.27 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | +0.08#13▼ | +0.14#25 | KC |
| Pass success rate | 46%#13▼ | 49%#25 | KC |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 7.7%#16▼ | 6.9%#6▼ | SF |
| Yards / dropback | 6.0#20▼ | 6.4#21 | · |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 7.8 | 7.9 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 13% | 12% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 57% | 54% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | −0.9#21▼ | +2.1#24▼ | · |
| YAC / completion | 5.8#3 | 4.6#5 | · |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 6.9%#20▲ | 3.4%#32▲ | KC |
| Scramble rate | 8.5% | 4.5% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.1%#16▼ | 0.9%#31▼ | KC |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 41 · M 17 · R 42 | L 41 · M 20 · R 40 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | −0.05#15▼ | −0.02#23▲ | KC |
| Rush success rate | 41%#18 | 48%#32 | KC |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 7.2%#31 | 8.6%#8▲ | SF |
| Yards / rush | 3.8#26 | 4.4#22 | · |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 38 · M 24 · R 38 | L 30 · M 28 · R 42 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 38%#22▼ | 40%#14 | SF |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 58%#13▼ | 56%#14 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.88#5 | 0.74#28▼ | KC |
| Plays / game | 61 | 60 | · |
Route-by-route data (which routes are run and how coverage plays them) is not published anywhere public — it is sold by PFF and NGS. Throw depth, direction, play-action, RPO, screens, motion and pass-rush counts above are the public pieces of the same picture.
San Francisco 49ers · key players
- Brock Purdy QB20.9/31.1 · 234 yds/g · 22-13 TD-INT · +0.16 EPA/db
- Jauan Jennings WR5.8 tgt/g · 19% share · 42 yds/g · 9 TD · aDOT 10.3
- George Kittle TEQuestionable5.9 tgt/g · 20% share · 53 yds/g · 7 TD · aDOT 6.7
- Kendrick Bourne WR3.7 tgt/g · 11% share · 37 yds/g · 0 TD · aDOT 11.3
- Ricky Pearsall WR5.5 tgt/g · 17% share · 53 yds/g · 0 TD · aDOT 13.8
- Christian McCaffrey RBQuestionable17.7 car/g · 68 yds/g · 3.8 ypc · 10 TD · −0.08 EPA/car
- Brian Robinson RB5.6 car/g · 24 yds/g · 4.3 ypc · 2 TD · −0.03 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Kansas City Chiefs · key players
- Patrick Mahomes QBQuestionable22.5/35.9 · 256 yds/g · 22-11 TD-INT · +0.13 EPA/db
- Travis Kelce TE6.4 tgt/g · 20% share · 50 yds/g · 5 TD · aDOT 6.8
- Rashee Rice WR9.8 tgt/g · 29% share · 71 yds/g · 5 TD · aDOT 4.3
- Marquise Brown WR4.6 tgt/g · 14% share · 37 yds/g · 5 TD · aDOT 11.3
- Xavier Worthy WR5.2 tgt/g · 16% share · 38 yds/g · 1 TD · aDOT 12.9
- Kareem Hunt RB9.6 car/g · 36 yds/g · 3.7 ypc · 8 TD · +0.06 EPA/car
- Isiah Pacheco RB9.1 car/g · 36 yds/g · 3.9 ypc · 1 TD · −0.12 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Season
| SF | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 13-6 | Record | 6-11 |
| 24.5 | Points for / game | 21.3 |
| 22.7 | Points against / game | 19.3 |
| 5-3 / 8-3 | Home / road | 5-4 / 1-7 |
| 12-7 | Against the spread | 6-11 |
| 11-8 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 4-13 |
| L W L W W | Last 5 | L L L L L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| SF | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1554 | Elo | 1497 |
| #9 of 32 | Rank | #17 of 32 |
| +2.5 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −3.7 |
| −1.1 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +1.8 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Efficiency
| SF | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.060 | EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play, nflverse. The single best efficiency number. | 0.031 |
| 0.071 | EPA / play allowed | -0.027 |
| 250 | Pass yards / game | 232 |
| 105 | Rush yards / game | 107 |
| 232 | Pass yards allowed | 205 |
| 113 | Rush yards allowed | 106 |
| 1.2 / 1.0 | Turnovers / takeaways | 0.8 / 1.1 |
| 1.6 / 1.2 | Sacks allowed / made | 2.8 / 1.9 |
| 20.5 | First downs / game | 18.3 |
| 37 | Penalty yards / game | 56 |
| +6.7 · #7 of 52 | QB EPA / gameThe listed starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games. | +7.0 · #4 of 52 |
Efficiency is from the 2025 season until this one has games. Source: nflverse.
Head to head
| 2024 | KC 28 at SF 18 | KC · KC covered |
| 2023 | SF 22 vs KC 25 | KC · KC covered |
| 2022 | KC 44 at SF 23 | KC · KC covered |
| 2019 | SF 20 vs KC 31 | KC · KC covered |
| 2018 | SF 27 at KC 38 | KC · KC covered |
| 2014 | KC 17 at SF 22 | SF · SF covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- SF +2.6 pts
- Home field
- KC +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Quarterback
- Usual starters — no adjustment
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
San Francisco 49ers injuries
- Isaac Guerendo RBOut
- Mykel Williams DEOut
- Austen Pleasants OTInjured Reserve
- Brett Toth CInjured Reserve
- Christian Kirk WRInjured Reserve
- Nate Hobbs CBInjured Reserve
- Nick Martin LBInjured Reserve
- Nick Zakelj OTInjured Reserve
- Sam Okuayinonu DTInjured Reserve
- Christian McCaffrey RBQuestionable
- De'Zhaun Stribling WRQuestionable
- Ephesians Prysock CBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Kansas City Chiefs injuries
- Omarr Norman-Lott DTOut
- Jeff Caldwell WRInjured Reserve
- Jimmy Holiday WRInjured Reserve
- Matt Waletzko OTInjured Reserve
- Alohi Gilman SQuestionable
- Ashton Gillotte DEQuestionable
- Drue Tranquill LBQuestionable
- Josh Simmons OTQuestionable
- Patrick Mahomes QBQuestionable
- R Mason Thomas DEQuestionable
- Trey Smith GQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.