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Kansas City (5-1) hosts San Francisco (6-1) at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Dec 27, 2026, 4:25 PM ET.
Lines post about a week before the game.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
SF end zone ← 100 yards → KC end zone
A longer bar = a better setup for the offense: half from how high the offense ranks, half from how low the defense across from it ranks (of 32). A full bar is the best offense against the worst defense; the dashed tick is an even matchup. Biggest advantage first.
SF has the clear advantage in sacks and third-down conversion; KC's defense has it in turnovers.
KC has the clear advantage in turnovers, sacks and passing; SF's defense has it in red-zone touchdown rate.
SF offensevs
KC defenseSF offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · KC defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
KC offensevsSF defenseKC offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · SF defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
215 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings tough
KC pressures on 32% of dropbacks (#7 of 32); he completes 41% under pressure (league 34%).
78.3 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings tough
125 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings tough
His routes (Go 16%, In / dig 15%, Deep out 15%): KC allowed 8.7 yds a target, league 8.6.
Same KC readings against WRs as above.
His routes (Screen 23%, In / dig 16%, Hitch / curl 12%): KC allowed 7.3 yds a target, league 7.5.
59.7 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Mixed: lots of yards allowed, but stingy per play this season
His routes (Quick out 21%, In / dig 12%, Hitch / curl 10%): KC allowed 7.8 yds a target, league 7.8.
228 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
SF pressures on 24% of dropbacks (#30 of 32); he completes 33% under pressure (league 34%).
94.4 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
132 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Quick out 19%, Screen 16%, Hitch / curl 12%): SF allowed 7.3 yds a target, league 7.5.
Same SF readings against WRs as above.
His routes (Screen 23%, Slant 20%, Hitch / curl 14%): SF allowed 6.7 yds a target, league 6.9.
53.8 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Hitch / curl 31%, Quick out 16%, Shallow cross 10%): SF allowed 7.0 yds a target, league 7.3.
Players: this season's attempts, carries and targets (last season before a team's first game); anyone ruled out on the injury report is left off. Routes are where his targets came from over 2024–25, each route's yards shrunk toward the league's. Books already price these matchups.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores (early in a season that reaches back into last season; each row shows how many of its games are from each season), against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
Where a player's own strength meets something tonight's opponent gives up more than most, measured against the league. Matchups like these were tested as inputs for player props and added nothing the books' lines do not already reflect: research, not a pick.
Lines from regulated US sportsbooks; the fair chance is the books' own, with their margin taken out.
San Francisco 49ers10 listedKansas City Chiefs4 listedTimes are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
The referee is posted closer to kickoff.
Book-by-book prices appear about a week before the game.
Not enough line history yet: the charts appear once the books have posted this game's numbers more than once.
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (6 of the 15 seasons in our history). KC have won the last 5.
San Francisco 49ersKansas City ChiefsLines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the score. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links may be affiliate links; we may earn a commission if you sign up through them.
The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 6–7 in 2026, 10–11 in 2025). A longer bar = higher in the league (rank 1 = highest, even for points allowed). A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.