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Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium · 86° · Mostly cloudy
PIT -3.5 · O/U 42.5
ATL +154 · PIT -185
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
PIT -185
62%
model margin PIT by 4.3
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Coin flip
PIT -3.5
50%
0.8 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Under 42.5
50%
model total 42.3
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 1471 | -0.8 | -0.3 | — | 0 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1509 | -1.6 | 0.6 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- PIT +38 Elo
- Home field
- PIT +2.5 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- PIT by 4.3
- Market spread
- PIT -3.5
- Model total
- 42.3 vs 42.5
- Moneyline
- ATL +154 · PIT -185
Atlanta Falcons injuries
- Anterio Thompson DTOut
- Beaux Collins WRInjured Reserve
- JD Bertrand LBInjured Reserve
- Keshawn Banks DEInjured Reserve
- Malik Verdon LBInjured Reserve
- Trey Sermon RBInjured Reserve
- Billy Bowman Jr. CBQuestionable
- Michael Penix Jr. QBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Pittsburgh Steelers injuries
- Donte Kent CBOut
- DeShon Elliott SInjured Reserve
- Jack Driscoll OTInjured Reserve
- Logan Lee DTInjured Reserve
- Ben Skowronek WRQuestionable
- DK Metcalf WRQuestionable
- Jalen Ramsey CBQuestionable
- Jaquan Brisker SQuestionable
- Michael Pittman Jr. WRQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.