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Atlanta Falcons
8-9 last yr · #19 Elo
at
Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET
Bank of America Stadium
Carolina Panthers
8-10 last yr · #26 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Atlanta Falcons are 1.9 points better (#19 vs #26 of 32), and CAR add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: ATL passing ranks #21, CAR defends it at #24; the other way CAR #26 into ATL's #13.
Who has the edge
Rating
Slight edge
ATL
ATL rated 1.9 points better on Elo (#26 vs #19).
Home & rest
Even
—
CAR gets 0.0 points for home field.
Quarterback
not priced
—
Usual starters on both sides — Bryce Young and Tua Tagovailoa — no adjustment.
Passing game
Clear edge
ATL
ATL passing ranks #21, CAR defends it at #24; the other way CAR #26 into ATL's #13.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
CAR rushing ranks #17, ATL defends it at #24; the other way ATL #20 into CAR's #27.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
ATL
ATL third-down conversion ranks #29, CAR defends it at #30; the other way CAR #25 into ATL's #17.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Even
—
CAR −4.4 per game over the last five, ATL −3.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Atlanta FalconsCarolina Panthers
1470 Elo · #19
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
ATL +1.9 pts
1427 Elo · #26
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
Tagovailoa · +0.5 EPA/g
QuarterbackStarter's value against what the team usually gets at quarterback. Only moves when someone other than the usual starter plays.
even
Young · −1.2 EPA/g
−0.9 pts vs CAR D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
ATL +0.8 pts
−1.7 pts vs ATL D
W W W W L · −3.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
ATL +0.7 pts
L L L W L · −4.4
6 out/IR
InjuriesCount of players listed Out or on IR. Not priced beyond the quarterback.
not priced
6 out/IR
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
nflverse play-by-play + FTN charting · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸ATL sack rate (#5) against a CAR defense ranked #27 at stopping it
- ▸ATL defense (#5 interceptions forced) against a CAR offense ranked #20
- ▸ATL yards / rush (#7) against a CAR defense ranked #21 at stopping it
- ▸ATL defense (#13 yards / dropback allowed) against a CAR offense ranked #27
- ▸ATL defense (#13 epa / dropback allowed) against a CAR offense ranked #26
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Atlanta Falcons offense vs Carolina Panthers defense
ranks of 32| ATL off | CAR def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 56% | 57% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 50% | 51% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 52% | 55% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | −6.2% | −5.0% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 29.3 | 30.6 | · |
| No-huddle | 11% | 9% | · |
| Shotgun | 81% | 64% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 20% | 22% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 5% | 5% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 9% | 8% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 67% | 60% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 27% | 26% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.34 | 4.29 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | +0.01#21▲ | +0.12#24▼ | · |
| Pass success rate | 45%#16 | 48%#22 | ATL |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 8.1%#14▼ | 7.8%#12▼ | · |
| Yards / dropback | 6.2#15 | 6.6#23 | ATL |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 7.7 | 7.8 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 11% | 11% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 48% | 52% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | −3.2#28▼ | +1.1#20▼ | CAR |
| YAC / completion | 5.6#5 | 5.1#17 | ATL |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 4.5%#5 | 5.1%#27 | ATL |
| Scramble rate | 2.6% | 4.6% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.5%#6▲ | 2.9%#8 | · |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 44 · M 17 · R 40 | L 41 · M 25 · R 34 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | −0.06#20▼ | +0.01#27▼ | ATL |
| Rush success rate | 42%#15 | 41%#12 | · |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 11.6%#5 | 8.9%#11▼ | ATL |
| Yards / rush | 4.6#7 | 4.4#21 | ATL |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 46 · M 13 · R 41 | L 40 · M 26 · R 34 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 34%#29 | 46%#30 | · |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 62%#10 | 58%#18 | ATL |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.94#9 | 1.11#20 | ATL |
| Plays / game | 61 | 59 | · |
Carolina Panthers offense vs Atlanta Falcons defense
ranks of 32| CAR off | ATL def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 59% | 60% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 53% | 55% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 52% | 56% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | −5.3% | −2.7% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 30.7 | 29.9 | · |
| No-huddle | 6% | 10% | · |
| Shotgun | 67% | 63% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 22% | 23% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 10% | 5% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 6% | 7% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 44% | 59% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 27% | 35% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.30 | 4.38 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | −0.03#26▼ | +0.00#13▼ | ATL |
| Pass success rate | 44%#23 | 45%#15 | ATL |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 7.7%#17▼ | 8.5%#21 | · |
| Yards / dropback | 5.7#27 | 6.0#13 | ATL |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 6.9 | 8.7 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 9% | 12% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 52% | 46% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | +0.9#14▼ | −2.2#7▼ | ATL |
| YAC / completion | 5.0#18 | 4.9#12 | ATL |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 5.9%#14▼ | 9.1%#4 | ATL |
| Scramble rate | 5.8% | 6.4% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.4%#20▲ | 3.0%#5▲ | ATL |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 40 · M 21 · R 39 | L 40 · M 20 · R 40 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | −0.05#17▼ | −0.02#24▼ | CAR |
| Rush success rate | 42%#13 | 43%#23 | CAR |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 8.9%#22▼ | 9.1%#13 | ATL |
| Yards / rush | 4.3#14▼ | 4.4#23 | CAR |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 37 · M 35 · R 28 | L 36 · M 31 · R 33 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 37%#25▼ | 40%#17 | ATL |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 57%#16▲ | 55%#12▼ | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.28#23▲ | 1.24#11▲ | ATL |
| Plays / game | 59 | 61 | · |
Route-by-route data (which routes are run and how coverage plays them) is not published anywhere public — it is sold by PFF and NGS. Throw depth, direction, play-action, RPO, screens, motion and pass-rush counts above are the public pieces of the same picture.
Atlanta Falcons · key players
- Michael Penix Jr. QBQuestionable18.4/30.7 · 220 yds/g · 9-3 TD-INT · +0.02 EPA/db
- Listed starter this week: Tua Tagovailoa — line above is Michael Penix Jr.'s.
- Kyle Pitts TE6.9 tgt/g · 23% share · 55 yds/g · 5 TD · aDOT 7.4
- Drake London WR9.3 tgt/g · 30% share · 77 yds/g · 7 TD · aDOT 10.9
- Darnell Mooney WR4.8 tgt/g · 16% share · 30 yds/g · 1 TD · aDOT 14.2
- David Sills WR3.0 tgt/g · 10% share · 16 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 11.2
- Bijan Robinson RB16.9 car/g · 87 yds/g · 5.1 ypc · 7 TD · −0.04 EPA/car
- Tyler Allgeier RB8.4 car/g · 30 yds/g · 3.6 ypc · 8 TD · −0.08 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Carolina Panthers · key players
- Bryce Young QB19.1/30.5 · 193 yds/g · 24-12 TD-INT · −0.05 EPA/db
- Tetairoa McMillan WR7.2 tgt/g · 25% share · 61 yds/g · 7 TD · aDOT 11.7
- Xavier Legette WRQuestionable4.3 tgt/g · 14% share · 23 yds/g · 3 TD · aDOT 10.0
- Jalen Coker WR4.6 tgt/g · 17% share · 44 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 10.5
- Tommy Tremble TE2.5 tgt/g · 9% share · 17 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 4.3
- Rico Dowdle RB13.4 car/g · 60 yds/g · 4.5 ypc · 6 TD · −0.02 EPA/car
- Chuba Hubbard RBQuestionable9.2 car/g · 35 yds/g · 3.8 ypc · 3 TD · −0.10 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Season
| ATL | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 8-9 | Record | 8-10 |
| 20.8 | Points for / game | 19.0 |
| 23.6 | Points against / game | 23.0 |
| 4-4 / 4-5 | Home / road | 5-4 / 3-6 |
| 9-8 | Against the spread | 11-7 |
| 8-9 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 8-10 |
| W W W W L | Last 5 | L L L W L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| ATL | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1470 | Elo | 1427 |
| #19 of 32 | Rank | #26 of 32 |
| −0.8 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −2.0 |
| −0.3 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +0.1 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Efficiency
| ATL | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.014 | EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play, nflverse. The single best efficiency number. | -0.048 |
| -0.002 | EPA / play allowed | 0.057 |
| 218 | Pass yards / game | 198 |
| 126 | Rush yards / game | 114 |
| 222 | Pass yards allowed | 220 |
| 126 | Rush yards allowed | 123 |
| 0.8 / 1.6 | Turnovers / takeaways | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| 1.5 / 3.4 | Sacks allowed / made | 2.1 / 1.7 |
| 17.5 | First downs / game | 16.4 |
| 48 | Penalty yards / game | 44 |
| +0.5 · #27 of 52 | QB EPA / gameThe listed starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games. | −1.2 · #35 of 52 |
Efficiency is from the 2025 season until this one has games. Source: nflverse.
Head to head
| 2025 | CAR 30 at ATL 27 | CAR · CAR covered |
| 2025 | ATL 0 at CAR 30 | CAR · CAR covered |
| 2024 | CAR 44 at ATL 38 | CAR · CAR covered |
| 2024 | ATL 38 at CAR 20 | ATL · ATL covered |
| 2023 | ATL 7 at CAR 9 | CAR · CAR covered |
| 2023 | CAR 10 at ATL 24 | ATL · ATL covered |
| 2022 | ATL 15 at CAR 25 | CAR · CAR covered |
| 2022 | CAR 34 at ATL 37 | ATL · CAR covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- ATL +1.9 pts
- Home field
- CAR +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Quarterback
- Usual starters — no adjustment
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Atlanta Falcons injuries
- Anterio Thompson DTOut
- Beaux Collins WRInjured Reserve
- JD Bertrand LBInjured Reserve
- Keshawn Banks DEInjured Reserve
- Malik Verdon LBInjured Reserve
- Trey Sermon RBInjured Reserve
- Billy Bowman Jr. CBQuestionable
- Michael Penix Jr. QBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Carolina Panthers injuries
- Ikem Ekwonu OTOut
- Taylor Moton OTOut
- Tershawn Wharton DTOut
- Bam Martin-Scott LBInjured Reserve
- Brady Christensen GInjured Reserve
- Trevor Etienne RBInjured Reserve
- Akayleb Evans CBQuestionable
- Chuba Hubbard RBQuestionable
- Derrick Brown DTQuestionable
- Devin Lloyd LBQuestionable
- Haynes King QBQuestionable
- Jaelan Phillips LBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.