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Chicago Bears
12-7 last yr · #14 Elo
at
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta Falcons
8-9 last yr · #19 Elo
Spread CHI -3Total 47.5Moneyline CHI -155 · ATL +130
The read
On rating alone Chicago Bears are 2.6 points better (#14 vs #19 of 32), and ATL add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: CHI rushing ranks #6, ATL defends it at #24; the other way ATL #20 into CHI's #19.
Who has the edge
Rating
Slight edge
CHI
CHI rated 2.6 points better on Elo (#19 vs #14).
Home & rest
Even
—
ATL gets 0.0 points for home field.
Quarterback
not priced
—
Usual starters on both sides — Tua Tagovailoa and Caleb Williams — no adjustment.
Passing game
Slight edge
CHI
CHI passing ranks #9, ATL defends it at #13; the other way ATL #21 into CHI's #19.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
CHI
CHI rushing ranks #6, ATL defends it at #24; the other way ATL #20 into CHI's #19.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
CHI third-down conversion ranks #6, ATL defends it at #17; the other way ATL #29 into CHI's #16.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Slight edge
CHI
ATL −3.0 per game over the last five, CHI 0.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
CHI
Consensus has CHI by 3.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Chicago BearsAtlanta Falcons
1527 Elo · #14
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
CHI +2.6 pts
1470 Elo · #19
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
Williams · +3.5 EPA/g
QuarterbackStarter's value against what the team usually gets at quarterback. Only moves when someone other than the usual starter plays.
even
Tagovailoa · +0.5 EPA/g
+1.5 pts vs ATL D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
CHI +3.7 pts
−2.1 pts vs CHI D
L W L L W · 0.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
CHI +1.5 pts
W W W W L · −3.0
10 out/IR
InjuriesCount of players listed Out or on IR. Not priced beyond the quarterback.
not priced
6 out/IR
CHI -3
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
CHI +3.0 pts
ATL +3
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
nflverse play-by-play + FTN charting · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸ATL defense (#7 completion % over expected allowed) against a CHI offense ranked #30
- ▸ATL yards / rush (#7) against a CHI defense ranked #29 at stopping it
- ▸CHI rush success rate (#3) against a ATL defense ranked #23 at stopping it
- ▸ATL explosive rush rate (#5) against a CHI defense ranked #25 at stopping it
- ▸CHI epa / rush (#6) against a ATL defense ranked #24 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Chicago Bears offense vs Atlanta Falcons defense
ranks of 32| CHI off | ATL def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 59% | 60% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 55% | 55% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 54% | 56% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | −4.1% | −2.7% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 28.6 | 29.9 | · |
| No-huddle | 5% | 10% | · |
| Shotgun | 53% | 63% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 30% | 23% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 5% | 5% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 9% | 7% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 59% | 59% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 29% | 35% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.32 | 4.38 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | +0.12#9▼ | +0.00#13▼ | · |
| Pass success rate | 45%#18 | 45%#15 | · |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 10.2%#7 | 8.5%#21 | CHI |
| Yards / dropback | 6.6#10 | 6.0#13 | · |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 8.9 | 8.7 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 16% | 12% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 44% | 46% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | −3.9#30▼ | −2.2#7▼ | ATL |
| YAC / completion | 5.5#8 | 4.9#12 | · |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 3.4%#1▼ | 9.1%#4 | · |
| Scramble rate | 6.9% | 6.4% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.8%#9▲ | 3.0%#5▲ | · |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 31 · M 23 · R 46 | L 40 · M 20 · R 40 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | −0.00#6▼ | −0.02#24▼ | CHI |
| Rush success rate | 46%#3 | 43%#23 | CHI |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 11.0%#11▼ | 9.1%#13 | · |
| Yards / rush | 4.5#10 | 4.4#23 | CHI |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 31 · M 15 · R 54 | L 36 · M 31 · R 33 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 44%#6 | 40%#17 | CHI |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 57%#15 | 55%#12▼ | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.84#4▲ | 1.24#11▲ | CHI |
| Plays / game | 66 | 61 | · |
Atlanta Falcons offense vs Chicago Bears defense
ranks of 32| ATL off | CHI def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 56% | 59% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 50% | 54% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 52% | 51% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | −6.2% | −3.2% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 29.3 | 28.7 | · |
| No-huddle | 11% | 14% | · |
| Shotgun | 81% | 63% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 20% | 26% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 5% | 5% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 9% | 6% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 67% | 50% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 27% | 28% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.34 | 4.37 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | +0.01#21▲ | +0.07#19▲ | · |
| Pass success rate | 45%#16 | 47%#20 | · |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 8.1%#14▼ | 10.6%#32 | ATL |
| Yards / dropback | 6.2#15 | 6.8#27 | ATL |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 7.7 | 8.6 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 11% | 14% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 48% | 51% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | −3.2#28▼ | +2.9#29▼ | · |
| YAC / completion | 5.6#5 | 4.9#14▲ | ATL |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 4.5%#5 | 5.8%#21 | ATL |
| Scramble rate | 2.6% | 4.1% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.5%#6▲ | 3.7%#2▼ | · |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 44 · M 17 · R 40 | L 36 · M 25 · R 40 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | −0.06#20▼ | −0.03#19▲ | · |
| Rush success rate | 42%#15 | 44%#25 | ATL |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 11.6%#5 | 11.5%#25▼ | ATL |
| Yards / rush | 4.6#7 | 4.7#29 | ATL |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 46 · M 13 · R 41 | L 41 · M 15 · R 44 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 34%#29 | 40%#16 | CHI |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 62%#10 | 59%#20 | ATL |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.94#9 | 1.74#1▼ | CHI |
| Plays / game | 61 | 61 | · |
Route-by-route data (which routes are run and how coverage plays them) is not published anywhere public — it is sold by PFF and NGS. Throw depth, direction, play-action, RPO, screens, motion and pass-rush counts above are the public pieces of the same picture.
Chicago Bears · key players
- Caleb Williams QB19.8/34.6 · 240 yds/g · 31-12 TD-INT · +0.08 EPA/db
- Colston Loveland TE5.9 tgt/g · 18% share · 50 yds/g · 6 TD · aDOT 9.9
- Rome Odunze WRQuestionable7.3 tgt/g · 22% share · 54 yds/g · 6 TD · aDOT 14.4
- DJ Moore WR5.3 tgt/g · 16% share · 42 yds/g · 8 TD · aDOT 11.2
- Luther Burden III WRQuestionable4.4 tgt/g · 13% share · 42 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 8.1
- D'Andre Swift RBQuestionable14.2 car/g · 68 yds/g · 4.8 ypc · 10 TD · +0.05 EPA/car
- Kyle Monangai RBQuestionable10.0 car/g · 45 yds/g · 4.5 ypc · 5 TD · −0.02 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Atlanta Falcons · key players
- Michael Penix Jr. QBQuestionable18.4/30.7 · 220 yds/g · 9-3 TD-INT · +0.02 EPA/db
- Listed starter this week: Tua Tagovailoa — line above is Michael Penix Jr.'s.
- Kyle Pitts TE6.9 tgt/g · 23% share · 55 yds/g · 5 TD · aDOT 7.4
- Drake London WR9.3 tgt/g · 30% share · 77 yds/g · 7 TD · aDOT 10.9
- Darnell Mooney WR4.8 tgt/g · 16% share · 30 yds/g · 1 TD · aDOT 14.2
- David Sills WR3.0 tgt/g · 10% share · 16 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 11.2
- Bijan Robinson RB16.9 car/g · 87 yds/g · 5.1 ypc · 7 TD · −0.04 EPA/car
- Tyler Allgeier RB8.4 car/g · 30 yds/g · 3.6 ypc · 8 TD · −0.08 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Season
| CHI | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 12-7 | Record | 8-9 |
| 25.7 | Points for / game | 20.8 |
| 24.3 | Points against / game | 23.6 |
| 7-3 / 5-4 | Home / road | 4-4 / 4-5 |
| 11-7-1 | Against the spread | 9-8 |
| 9-10 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 8-9 |
| L W L L W | Last 5 | W W W W L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| CHI | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1527 | Elo | 1470 |
| #14 of 32 | Rank | #19 of 32 |
| +1.2 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −0.8 |
| +1.3 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −0.3 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Efficiency
| CHI | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.068 | EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play, nflverse. The single best efficiency number. | -0.014 |
| 0.031 | EPA / play allowed | -0.002 |
| 243 | Pass yards / game | 218 |
| 143 | Rush yards / game | 126 |
| 245 | Pass yards allowed | 222 |
| 131 | Rush yards allowed | 126 |
| 0.7 / 2.1 | Turnovers / takeaways | 0.8 / 1.6 |
| 1.3 / 2.1 | Sacks allowed / made | 1.5 / 3.4 |
| 19.8 | First downs / game | 17.5 |
| 53 | Penalty yards / game | 48 |
| +3.5 · #16 of 52 | QB EPA / gameThe listed starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games. | +0.5 · #27 of 52 |
Efficiency is from the 2025 season until this one has games. Source: nflverse.
Head to head
| 2023 | ATL 17 at CHI 37 | CHI · CHI covered |
| 2022 | CHI 24 at ATL 27 | ATL · push |
| 2020 | CHI 30 at ATL 26 | CHI · CHI covered |
| 2017 | ATL 23 at CHI 17 | ATL · CHI covered |
| 2014 | CHI 27 at ATL 13 | CHI · CHI covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- CHI +2.6 pts
- Home field
- ATL +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Quarterback
- Usual starters — no adjustment
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- CHI -3
- Total
- 47.5
- Moneyline
- CHI -155 · ATL +130
| Book | ATL spread | Total | CHI ML | ATL ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | +3 (-115) | 47.5 (-110/-110) | — | -166 |
| williamhill_us | +3 (-115) | 47 (-115/-115) | — | -178 |
Chicago Bears injuries
- Kyler Gordon CBOut
- Noah Sewell LBOut
- Shemar Turner DTOut
- Beanie Bishop Jr. CBInjured Reserve
- Brittain Brown RBInjured Reserve
- Coby Bryant SInjured Reserve
- Dontae Manning CBInjured Reserve
- Hayden Large TEInjured Reserve
- Ruben Hyppolite II LBInjured Reserve
- Tony Fields II LBInjured Reserve
- D'Andre Swift RBQuestionable
- Jaylon Johnson CBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Atlanta Falcons injuries
- Anterio Thompson DTOut
- Beaux Collins WRInjured Reserve
- JD Bertrand LBInjured Reserve
- Keshawn Banks DEInjured Reserve
- Malik Verdon LBInjured Reserve
- Trey Sermon RBInjured Reserve
- Billy Bowman Jr. CBQuestionable
- Michael Penix Jr. QBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.