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Baltimore Ravens
8-9 last yr · #12 Elo
at
Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta Falcons
8-9 last yr · #19 Elo
Spread BAL -4.5Total 48.5Moneyline BAL -205 · ATL +170
The read
On rating alone Baltimore Ravens are 3.6 points better (#12 vs #19 of 32), and ATL add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: BAL rushing ranks #3, ATL defends it at #24; the other way ATL #20 into BAL's #11.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
BAL
BAL rated 3.6 points better on Elo (#19 vs #12).
Home & rest
Even
—
ATL gets 0.0 points for home field.
Quarterback
not priced
—
Usual starters on both sides — Tua Tagovailoa and Lamar Jackson — no adjustment.
Passing game
Slight edge
ATL
ATL passing ranks #21, BAL defends it at #21; the other way BAL #20 into ATL's #13.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
BAL
BAL rushing ranks #3, ATL defends it at #24; the other way ATL #20 into BAL's #11.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
BAL
BAL third-down conversion ranks #12, ATL defends it at #17; the other way ATL #29 into BAL's #11.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
BAL
ATL −3.0 per game over the last five, BAL +6.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
BAL
Consensus has BAL by 4.5.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Baltimore RavensAtlanta Falcons
1549 Elo · #12
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
BAL +3.6 pts
1470 Elo · #19
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
Jackson · +3.0 EPA/g
QuarterbackStarter's value against what the team usually gets at quarterback. Only moves when someone other than the usual starter plays.
even
Tagovailoa · +0.5 EPA/g
+2.0 pts vs ATL D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
BAL +3.5 pts
−1.6 pts vs BAL D
L W L W L · +6.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
BAL +4.5 pts
W W W W L · −3.0
5 out/IR
InjuriesCount of players listed Out or on IR. Not priced beyond the quarterback.
not priced
6 out/IR
BAL -4.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
BAL +4.5 pts
ATL +4.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
nflverse play-by-play + FTN charting · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸ATL sack rate (#5) against a BAL defense ranked #31 at stopping it
- ▸ATL defense (#4 sack rate generated) against a BAL offense ranked #27
- ▸BAL yards / rush (#1) against a ATL defense ranked #23 at stopping it
- ▸BAL epa / rush (#3) against a ATL defense ranked #24 at stopping it
- ▸ATL defense (#5 interceptions forced) against a BAL offense ranked #24
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Baltimore Ravens offense vs Atlanta Falcons defense
ranks of 32| BAL off | ATL def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 53% | 60% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 45% | 55% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 46% | 56% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | −8.8% | −2.7% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 31.0 | 29.9 | · |
| No-huddle | 3% | 10% | · |
| Shotgun | 65% | 63% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 22% | 23% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 6% | 5% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 7% | 7% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 54% | 59% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 34% | 35% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.44 | 4.38 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | +0.02#20▲ | +0.00#13▼ | ATL |
| Pass success rate | 47%#12 | 45%#15 | · |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 8.8%#11▼ | 8.5%#21 | BAL |
| Yards / dropback | 6.6#11 | 6.0#13 | · |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 8.2 | 8.7 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 11% | 12% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 52% | 46% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | +3.0#6▲ | −2.2#7▼ | · |
| YAC / completion | 4.9#22 | 4.9#12 | ATL |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 9.0%#27 | 9.1%#4 | ATL |
| Scramble rate | 7.4% | 6.4% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.6%#24▼ | 3.0%#5▲ | ATL |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 35 · M 24 · R 41 | L 40 · M 20 · R 40 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | +0.05#3▲ | −0.02#24▼ | BAL |
| Rush success rate | 42%#12 | 43%#23 | BAL |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 13.0%#2 | 9.1%#13 | BAL |
| Yards / rush | 5.2#1 | 4.4#23 | BAL |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 44 · M 17 · R 40 | L 36 · M 31 · R 33 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 41%#12▲ | 40%#17 | · |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 47%#27▲ | 55%#12▼ | ATL |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.29#24 | 1.24#11▲ | ATL |
| Plays / game | 56 | 61 | · |
Atlanta Falcons offense vs Baltimore Ravens defense
ranks of 32| ATL off | BAL def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 56% | 65% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 50% | 60% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 52% | 56% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | −6.2% | +1.0% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 29.3 | 29.2 | · |
| No-huddle | 11% | 8% | · |
| Shotgun | 81% | 70% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 20% | 19% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 5% | 8% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 9% | 8% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 67% | 51% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 27% | 24% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.34 | 4.23 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | +0.01#21▲ | +0.09#21▲ | · |
| Pass success rate | 45%#16 | 46%#18 | · |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 8.1%#14▼ | 9.8%#28▲ | ATL |
| Yards / dropback | 6.2#15 | 6.5#22 | ATL |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 7.7 | 8.2 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 11% | 13% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 48% | 51% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | −3.2#28▼ | +2.4#27▲ | · |
| YAC / completion | 5.6#5 | 4.8#10 | · |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 4.5%#5 | 4.3%#31▲ | ATL |
| Scramble rate | 2.6% | 5.6% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.5%#6▲ | 1.8%#23 | ATL |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 44 · M 17 · R 40 | L 37 · M 21 · R 42 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | −0.06#20▼ | −0.09#11▼ | BAL |
| Rush success rate | 42%#15 | 41%#14 | · |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 11.6%#5 | 10.5%#21 | ATL |
| Yards / rush | 4.6#7 | 4.1#16 | ATL |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 46 · M 13 · R 41 | L 43 · M 16 · R 41 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 34%#29 | 38%#11 | BAL |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 62%#10 | 51%#4 | BAL |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.94#9 | 1.12#17 | ATL |
| Plays / game | 61 | 63 | · |
Route-by-route data (which routes are run and how coverage plays them) is not published anywhere public — it is sold by PFF and NGS. Throw depth, direction, play-action, RPO, screens, motion and pass-rush counts above are the public pieces of the same picture.
Baltimore Ravens · key players
- Lamar Jackson QB14.8/23.2 · 196 yds/g · 21-7 TD-INT · +0.05 EPA/db
- Zay Flowers WRQuestionable6.9 tgt/g · 30% share · 71 yds/g · 5 TD · aDOT 10.2
- Mark Andrews TE4.1 tgt/g · 17% share · 25 yds/g · 5 TD · aDOT 7.3
- DeAndre Hopkins WR2.3 tgt/g · 10% share · 19 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 13.2
- Rashod Bateman WR2.9 tgt/g · 12% share · 17 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 12.3
- Derrick Henry RB18.1 car/g · 94 yds/g · 5.2 ypc · 16 TD · +0.03 EPA/car
- Keaton Mitchell RB4.9 car/g · 28 yds/g · 5.8 ypc · 1 TD · +0.04 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Atlanta Falcons · key players
- Michael Penix Jr. QBQuestionable18.4/30.7 · 220 yds/g · 9-3 TD-INT · +0.02 EPA/db
- Listed starter this week: Tua Tagovailoa — line above is Michael Penix Jr.'s.
- Kyle Pitts TE6.9 tgt/g · 23% share · 55 yds/g · 5 TD · aDOT 7.4
- Drake London WR9.3 tgt/g · 30% share · 77 yds/g · 7 TD · aDOT 10.9
- Darnell Mooney WR4.8 tgt/g · 16% share · 30 yds/g · 1 TD · aDOT 14.2
- David Sills WR3.0 tgt/g · 10% share · 16 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 11.2
- Bijan Robinson RB16.9 car/g · 87 yds/g · 5.1 ypc · 7 TD · −0.04 EPA/car
- Tyler Allgeier RB8.4 car/g · 30 yds/g · 3.6 ypc · 8 TD · −0.08 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Season
| BAL | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 8-9 | Record | 8-9 |
| 24.9 | Points for / game | 20.8 |
| 23.4 | Points against / game | 23.6 |
| 3-6 / 5-3 | Home / road | 4-4 / 4-5 |
| 6-11 | Against the spread | 9-8 |
| 11-6 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 8-9 |
| L W L W L | Last 5 | W W W W L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| BAL | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1549 | Elo | 1470 |
| #12 of 32 | Rank | #19 of 32 |
| +1.6 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −0.8 |
| +0.8 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −0.3 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Efficiency
| BAL | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.048 | EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play, nflverse. The single best efficiency number. | -0.014 |
| 0.018 | EPA / play allowed | -0.002 |
| 193 | Pass yards / game | 218 |
| 157 | Rush yards / game | 126 |
| 259 | Pass yards allowed | 222 |
| 107 | Rush yards allowed | 126 |
| 1.1 / 1.5 | Turnovers / takeaways | 0.8 / 1.6 |
| 2.6 / 1.8 | Sacks allowed / made | 1.5 / 3.4 |
| 16.9 | First downs / game | 17.5 |
| 44 | Penalty yards / game | 48 |
| +3.0 · #18 of 52 | QB EPA / gameThe listed starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games. | +0.5 · #27 of 52 |
Efficiency is from the 2025 season until this one has games. Source: nflverse.
Head to head
| 2022 | ATL 9 at BAL 17 | BAL · BAL covered |
| 2018 | BAL 26 at ATL 16 | BAL · BAL covered |
| 2014 | ATL 7 at BAL 29 | BAL · BAL covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- BAL +3.6 pts
- Home field
- ATL +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Quarterback
- Usual starters — no adjustment
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- BAL -4.5
- Total
- 48.5
- Moneyline
- BAL -205 · ATL +170
| Book | ATL spread | Total | BAL ML | ATL ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| betus | +4.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110/-110) | — | — |
| draftkings | +4.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110/-110) | — | -225 |
| williamhill_us | +4 (-115) | 47.5 (-115/-115) | — | -210 |
Baltimore Ravens injuries
- Adam Randall RBInjured Reserve
- Bilhal Kone CBInjured Reserve
- Danny Pinter CInjured Reserve
- Jahquez Robinson SInjured Reserve
- Skylar Thompson QBInjured Reserve
- Aeneas Peebles DTQuestionable
- Jay Higgins IV LBQuestionable
- Nnamdi Madubuike DTQuestionable
- Zay Flowers WRQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Atlanta Falcons injuries
- Anterio Thompson DTOut
- Beaux Collins WRInjured Reserve
- JD Bertrand LBInjured Reserve
- Keshawn Banks DEInjured Reserve
- Malik Verdon LBInjured Reserve
- Trey Sermon RBInjured Reserve
- Billy Bowman Jr. CBQuestionable
- Michael Penix Jr. QBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.