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Jacksonville Jaguars
13-5 last yr · #7 Elo
at
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Paycor Stadium
Cincinnati Bengals
6-11 last yr · #20 Elo
Spread CIN -2.5Total 51.5Moneyline JAX +114 · CIN -135
The read
On rating alone Jacksonville Jaguars are 4.3 points better (#7 vs #20 of 32), and CIN add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: JAX passing ranks #10, CIN defends it at #28; the other way CIN #25 into JAX's #4.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
JAX
JAX rated 4.3 points better on Elo (#20 vs #7).
Home & rest
Even
—
CIN gets 0.0 points for home field.
Quarterback
not priced
—
Usual starters on both sides — Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence — no adjustment.
Passing game
Clear edge
JAX
JAX passing ranks #10, CIN defends it at #28; the other way CIN #25 into JAX's #4.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
JAX
JAX rushing ranks #14, CIN defends it at #31; the other way CIN #5 into JAX's #16.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
CIN third-down conversion ranks #5, JAX defends it at #21; the other way JAX #14 into CIN's #27.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
JAX
CIN +3.2 per game over the last five, JAX +15.8.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
CIN
Consensus has CIN by 2.5.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Jacksonville JaguarsCincinnati Bengals
1564 Elo · #7
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
JAX +4.3 pts
1469 Elo · #20
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
Lawrence · +3.5 EPA/g
QuarterbackStarter's value against what the team usually gets at quarterback. Only moves when someone other than the usual starter plays.
even
Burrow · +5.0 EPA/g
+6.7 pts vs CIN D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
JAX +7.0 pts
−0.3 pts vs JAX D
L W W W W · +15.8
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
JAX +6.3 pts
L W W L L · +3.2
6 out/IR
InjuriesCount of players listed Out or on IR. Not priced beyond the quarterback.
not priced
2 out/IR
JAX +2.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
CIN +2.5 pts
CIN -2.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
nflverse play-by-play + FTN charting · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸JAX defense (#3 takeaways / game) against a CIN offense ranked #30
- ▸JAX defense (#1 yac / completion allowed) against a CIN offense ranked #27
- ▸JAX defense (#4 interceptions forced) against a CIN offense ranked #27
- ▸JAX defense (#5 explosive pass rate allowed) against a CIN offense ranked #27
- ▸JAX defense (#4 epa / dropback allowed) against a CIN offense ranked #25
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Jacksonville Jaguars offense vs Cincinnati Bengals defense
ranks of 32| JAX off | CIN def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 60% | 59% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 57% | 54% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 59% | 56% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | +1.7% | −1.2% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 29.9 | 29.4 | · |
| No-huddle | 7% | 6% | · |
| Shotgun | 61% | 60% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 22% | 27% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 5% | 6% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 8% | 10% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 59% | 58% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 26% | 18% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.29 | 4.18 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | +0.08#10▲ | +0.18#28▼ | JAX |
| Pass success rate | 47%#11 | 50%#29 | JAX |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 9.0%#9 | 10.0%#29▼ | JAX |
| Yards / dropback | 6.4#12 | 7.1#29 | JAX |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 8.8 | 7.5 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 14% | 11% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 45% | 53% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | −1.9#24▲ | +0.9#18▼ | CIN |
| YAC / completion | 4.8#25 | 7.0#32 | JAX |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 6.2%#16▼ | 5.8%#23▲ | JAX |
| Scramble rate | 6.6% | 6.4% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.4%#21▲ | 2.4%#12 | CIN |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 42 · M 22 · R 36 | L 40 · M 23 · R 37 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | −0.04#14▼ | +0.06#31▼ | JAX |
| Rush success rate | 41%#19 | 44%#28▼ | JAX |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 8.7%#23▲ | 12.0%#27▼ | · |
| Yards / rush | 4.0#23 | 5.2#31 | JAX |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 34 · M 38 · R 28 | L 41 · M 18 · R 41 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 41%#14▲ | 44%#27▼ | JAX |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 63%#8 | 63%#25 | JAX |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.11#14 | 1.24#12 | · |
| Plays / game | 62 | 61 | · |
Cincinnati Bengals offense vs Jacksonville Jaguars defense
ranks of 32| CIN off | JAX def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 66% | 68% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 62% | 63% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 61% | 63% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | +1.7% | +1.8% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 29.3 | 28.9 | · |
| No-huddle | 3% | 9% | · |
| Shotgun | 82% | 70% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 16% | 19% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 9% | 5% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 7% | 8% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 53% | 53% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 20% | 26% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.23 | 4.26 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | −0.02#25▲ | −0.09#4▼ | JAX |
| Pass success rate | 46%#14▲ | 44%#12 | · |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 6.8%#27▲ | 6.8%#5▼ | JAX |
| Yards / dropback | 5.9#21 | 5.7#8 | JAX |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 7.4 | 8.0 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 11% | 12% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 55% | 53% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | +1.2#12▲ | −0.8#11▼ | · |
| YAC / completion | 4.7#27 | 4.3#1 | JAX |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 5.2%#10 | 4.5%#30 | CIN |
| Scramble rate | 2.0% | 5.1% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.7%#27▼ | 3.3%#4 | JAX |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 35 · M 26 · R 38 | L 42 · M 20 · R 38 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | +0.02#5▲ | −0.07#16▲ | CIN |
| Rush success rate | 45%#4 | 38%#6 | · |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 9.5%#20 | 7.8%#7 | JAX |
| Yards / rush | 4.3#13 | 3.7#4 | JAX |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 35 · M 26 · R 39 | L 28 · M 42 · R 30 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 44%#5▲ | 41%#21 | CIN |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 67%#3▲ | 62%#24▲ | CIN |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.41#30▼ | 1.61#3▼ | JAX |
| Plays / game | 61 | 60 | · |
Route-by-route data (which routes are run and how coverage plays them) is not published anywhere public — it is sold by PFF and NGS. Throw depth, direction, play-action, RPO, screens, motion and pass-rush counts above are the public pieces of the same picture.
Jacksonville Jaguars · key players
- Trevor Lawrence QB19.9/32.8 · 234 yds/g · 32-14 TD-INT · +0.06 EPA/db
- Parker Washington WR6.7 tgt/g · 21% share · 60 yds/g · 6 TD · aDOT 12.5
- Brian Thomas Jr. WR6.2 tgt/g · 18% share · 49 yds/g · 3 TD · aDOT 14.4
- Brenton Strange TE5.0 tgt/g · 16% share · 42 yds/g · 3 TD · aDOT 7.2
- Jakobi Meyers WRQuestionable6.5 tgt/g · 22% share · 50 yds/g · 3 TD · aDOT 9.5
- Travis Etienne RB15.0 car/g · 65 yds/g · 4.3 ypc · 7 TD · −0.06 EPA/car
- Bhayshul Tuten RBQuestionable5.4 car/g · 22 yds/g · 4.1 ypc · 5 TD · −0.08 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Cincinnati Bengals · key players
- Joe Burrow QB21.6/32.4 · 226 yds/g · 17-5 TD-INT · +0.13 EPA/db
- Ja'Marr Chase WRQuestionable11.6 tgt/g · 32% share · 88 yds/g · 8 TD · aDOT 8.5
- Tee Higgins WRQuestionable6.5 tgt/g · 18% share · 56 yds/g · 11 TD · aDOT 13.4
- Andrei Iosivas WR3.9 tgt/g · 10% share · 29 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 10.4
- Mike Gesicki TE3.5 tgt/g · 10% share · 26 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 10.0
- Chase Brown RB13.6 car/g · 60 yds/g · 4.4 ypc · 6 TD · −0.02 EPA/car
- Samaje Perine RB6.0 car/g · 27 yds/g · 4.5 ypc · 3 TD · −0.00 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Season
| JAX | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 13-5 | Record | 6-11 |
| 27.7 | Points for / game | 24.4 |
| 20.2 | Points against / game | 28.9 |
| 7-3 / 6-2 | Home / road | 3-6 / 3-5 |
| 12-6 | Against the spread | 8-9 |
| 10-8 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 9-8 |
| L W W W W | Last 5 | L W W L L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| JAX | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1564 | Elo | 1469 |
| #7 of 32 | Rank | #20 of 32 |
| +4.1 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +2.3 |
| +2.6 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −2.6 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Efficiency
| JAX | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.031 | EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play, nflverse. The single best efficiency number. | 0.019 |
| -0.079 | EPA / play allowed | 0.134 |
| 235 | Pass yards / game | 250 |
| 117 | Rush yards / game | 94 |
| 234 | Pass yards allowed | 246 |
| 85 | Rush yards allowed | 147 |
| 1.0 / 1.9 | Turnovers / takeaways | 1.4 / 1.4 |
| 2.3 / 1.8 | Sacks allowed / made | 2.1 / 2.0 |
| 18.8 | First downs / game | 18.5 |
| 61 | Penalty yards / game | 37 |
| +3.5 · #17 of 52 | QB EPA / gameThe listed starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games. | +5.0 · #11 of 52 |
Efficiency is from the 2025 season until this one has games. Source: nflverse.
Head to head
| 2025 | JAX 27 at CIN 31 | CIN · CIN covered |
| 2023 | CIN 34 at JAX 31 | CIN · CIN covered |
| 2021 | JAX 21 at CIN 24 | CIN · JAX covered |
| 2020 | JAX 25 at CIN 33 | CIN · CIN covered |
| 2019 | JAX 27 at CIN 17 | JAX · JAX covered |
| 2017 | CIN 7 at JAX 23 | JAX · JAX covered |
| 2014 | JAX 23 at CIN 33 | CIN · push |
| 2012 | CIN 27 at JAX 10 | CIN · CIN covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- JAX +4.3 pts
- Home field
- CIN +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Quarterback
- Usual starters — no adjustment
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- CIN -2.5
- Total
- 51.5
- Moneyline
- JAX +114 · CIN -135
| Book | CIN spread | Total | JAX ML | CIN ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| betus | -2.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-110/-110) | — | — |
| draftkings | -2.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-110/-110) | — | +114 |
| williamhill_us | -3 (-115) | 51.5 (-115/-115) | — | +130 |
Jacksonville Jaguars injuries
- Carter Bradley QBInjured Reserve
- Jared Bartlett LBInjured Reserve
- Parker Hughes LBInjured Reserve
- Patrick Mekari GInjured Reserve
- Sam Mustipher CInjured Reserve
- Zach Durfee DEInjured Reserve
- Bhayshul Tuten RBQuestionable
- Jakobi Meyers WRQuestionable
- LeQuint Allen Jr. RBQuestionable
- Wyatt Milum GQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Cincinnati Bengals injuries
- Brian Parker II OTInjured Reserve
- Ja'Sir Taylor CBInjured Reserve
- Dax Hill CBQuestionable
- Ja'Marr Chase WRQuestionable
- Myles Murphy DEQuestionable
- Shemar Stewart DEQuestionable
- Tee Higgins WRQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.