Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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New England Patriots
1-1
Model predicts
18 – 20
Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
EverBank Stadium · 81° · Partly sunny
Jacksonville Jaguars
1-1
Spread JAX -3 (opened JAX -1.5)Total 45.5Moneyline NE +130 · JAX -1557 books · best NE +136 pinnacle · JAX -154 pinnacle
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
JAX -155
56%
model margin JAX by 1.9
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean
NE +3
50%
1.1 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 45.5
53%
model total 38.7 · best under 46 at betmgm
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has JAX winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, NE. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.

The read

A quarterback change matters here: Drake Maye is starting for New England Patriots. The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: JAX rushing ranks #14, NE defends it at #12; the other way NE #27 into JAX's #16. The model lands on JAX by 1.9 against a market JAX by 3, so the spread lean is NE by 1.1 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 38.7 against 45.5.

Who has the edge

Model: JAX by 1.9 · market JAX by 3
Passing game
Slight edge
NE
NE passing ranks #3, JAX defends it at #4; the other way JAX #10 into NE's #5.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
JAX
JAX rushing ranks #14, NE defends it at #12; the other way NE #27 into JAX's #16.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
NE
NE third-down conversion ranks #10, JAX defends it at #21; the other way JAX #14 into NE's #7.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Even
—
JAX +8.5 per game over the last five, NE +7.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
JAX
Consensus has JAX by 3; the model says JAX by 1.9.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every NFL final since 2012, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,862 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket JAX by 3 · model JAX by 1.9
Mkt JAX 3
Model JAX 1.9
-28028

2.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The market is on 3, a number 14.4% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.4%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).

Totalmarket 45.5 · model 38.7
Mkt 45.5
Model 38.7
204672

20.8% of NFL games finish between 45.5 and 38.7 — the games where the under cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
No sharp side yet
Opened
JAX -2
Pinnacle now
JAX -2.75
Retail now
JAX -3
Moves
10 across 7 books

First sharp move Mon 6:30 PM: JAX -2.5 → JAX -3, 1 book followed within six hours; retail was still JAX -3.

Total
Sharp side: the over · model disagrees
Opened
46
Pinnacle now
45.8(+0.5)
Retail now
45.5
Moves
24 across 7 books · 3 led

First sharp move Mon 1:26 PM: 45.5 → 45, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 45.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.