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Miami Dolphins
7-10 last yr · #21 Elo
at
Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET
Levi's Stadium
San Francisco 49ers
13-6 last yr · #9 Elo
Spread SF -10.5Total 46.5Moneyline MIA +490 · SF -675
The read
On rating alone San Francisco 49ers are 3.9 points better (#9 vs #21 of 32), and SF add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: SF third-down conversion ranks #1, MIA defends it at #18; the other way MIA #27 into SF's #14.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
SF
SF rated 3.9 points better on Elo (#9 vs #21).
Home & rest
Even
—
SF gets 0.0 points for home field.
Quarterback
not priced
—
Usual starters on both sides — Brock Purdy and Malik Willis — no adjustment.
Passing game
Clear edge
SF
SF passing ranks #8, MIA defends it at #27; the other way MIA #23 into SF's #25.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
MIA
MIA rushing ranks #9, SF defends it at #23; the other way SF #13 into MIA's #20.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
SF
SF third-down conversion ranks #1, MIA defends it at #18; the other way MIA #27 into SF's #14.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Slight edge
SF
SF −3.2 per game over the last five, MIA −7.6.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
SF
Consensus has SF by 10.5.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Miami DolphinsSan Francisco 49ers
1468 Elo · #21
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
SF +3.9 pts
1554 Elo · #9
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
Willis · +13.4 EPA/g
QuarterbackStarter's value against what the team usually gets at quarterback. Only moves when someone other than the usual starter plays.
even
Purdy · +6.7 EPA/g
−1.8 pts vs SF D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
SF +6.2 pts
+4.3 pts vs MIA D
L W L L W · −7.6
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
SF +2.2 pts
L W L W W · −3.2
6 out/IR
InjuriesCount of players listed Out or on IR. Not priced beyond the quarterback.
not priced
9 out/IR
MIA +10.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
SF +10.5 pts
SF -10.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
nflverse play-by-play + FTN charting · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸SF pass success rate (#3) against a MIA defense ranked #32 at stopping it
- ▸SF completion % over expected (#3) against a MIA defense ranked #32 at stopping it
- ▸MIA yards / rush (#3) against a SF defense ranked #22 at stopping it
- ▸SF epa / dropback (#8) against a MIA defense ranked #27 at stopping it
- ▸SF yards / dropback (#8) against a MIA defense ranked #26 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Miami Dolphins offense vs San Francisco 49ers defense
ranks of 32| MIA off | SF def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 56% | 60% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 50% | 57% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 50% | 56% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | −5.8% | −2.3% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 31.2 | 29.8 | · |
| No-huddle | 4% | 11% | · |
| Shotgun | 72% | 66% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 27% | 23% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 6% | 6% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 12% | 9% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 71% | 54% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 23% | 22% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.23 | 4.27 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | −0.01#23▼ | +0.14#25 | · |
| Pass success rate | 43%#25 | 49%#25 | · |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 8.1%#13▲ | 6.9%#6▼ | SF |
| Yards / dropback | 5.9#24 | 6.4#21 | · |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 7.0 | 7.9 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 10% | 12% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 54% | 54% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | +1.7#9▼ | +2.1#24▼ | MIA |
| YAC / completion | 5.6#7 | 4.6#5 | · |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 7.2%#21 | 3.4%#32▲ | MIA |
| Scramble rate | 2.8% | 4.5% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.8%#31 | 0.9%#31▼ | · |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 43 · M 18 · R 39 | L 41 · M 20 · R 40 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | −0.03#9▼ | −0.02#23▲ | MIA |
| Rush success rate | 40%#22 | 48%#32 | MIA |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 13.4%#1▼ | 8.6%#8▲ | MIA |
| Yards / rush | 4.8#3 | 4.4#22 | MIA |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 38 · M 22 · R 40 | L 30 · M 28 · R 42 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 35%#27 | 40%#14 | SF |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 56%#19 | 56%#14 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.35#28 | 0.74#28▼ | · |
| Plays / game | 55 | 60 | · |
San Francisco 49ers offense vs Miami Dolphins defense
ranks of 32| SF off | MIA def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 59% | 58% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 55% | 54% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 58% | 54% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | −0.7% | −2.9% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 29.3 | 31.3 | · |
| No-huddle | 4% | 12% | · |
| Shotgun | 55% | 66% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 22% | 21% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 1% | 7% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 6% | 8% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 67% | 55% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 21% | 33% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.18 | 4.35 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | +0.13#8▼ | +0.17#27▲ | SF |
| Pass success rate | 52%#3 | 52%#32 | SF |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 8.0%#15▼ | 8.8%#24▲ | SF |
| Yards / dropback | 6.9#8 | 6.7#26 | SF |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 7.6 | 7.3 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 10% | 10% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 53% | 59% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | +4.7#3▼ | +7.1#32▲ | SF |
| YAC / completion | 4.6#28 | 5.4#24 | · |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 4.3%#4▲ | 6.6%#14▼ | SF |
| Scramble rate | 4.9% | 6.4% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.0%#28▲ | 1.8%#24 | · |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 41 · M 26 · R 34 | L 40 · M 18 · R 42 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | −0.04#13▼ | −0.03#20▲ | SF |
| Rush success rate | 42%#14 | 43%#22 | SF |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 8.2%#25▼ | 12.1%#28 | · |
| Yards / rush | 3.7#29 | 4.6#25 | · |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 35 · M 27 · R 38 | L 31 · M 34 · R 35 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 51%#1 | 40%#18 | SF |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 65%#5 | 60%#23▲ | SF |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.42#31▲ | 1.06#21 | MIA |
| Plays / game | 62 | 59 | · |
Route-by-route data (which routes are run and how coverage plays them) is not published anywhere public — it is sold by PFF and NGS. Throw depth, direction, play-action, RPO, screens, motion and pass-rush counts above are the public pieces of the same picture.
Miami Dolphins · key players
- Tua Tagovailoa QB18.6/27.4 · 190 yds/g · 20-15 TD-INT · +0.03 EPA/db
- Listed starter this week: Malik Willis — line above is Tua Tagovailoa's.
- Jaylen Waddle WR6.3 tgt/g · 23% share · 57 yds/g · 6 TD · aDOT 13.1
- Malik Washington WR3.8 tgt/g · 14% share · 19 yds/g · 3 TD · aDOT 5.2
- Darren Waller TE4.3 tgt/g · 16% share · 35 yds/g · 6 TD · aDOT 10.6
- Greg Dulcich TE3.7 tgt/g · 15% share · 37 yds/g · 1 TD · aDOT 4.7
- De'Von Achane RB14.9 car/g · 84 yds/g · 5.7 ypc · 8 TD · +0.06 EPA/car
- Jaylen Wright RB7.8 car/g · 32 yds/g · 4.1 ypc · 2 TD · −0.08 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
San Francisco 49ers · key players
- Brock Purdy QB20.9/31.1 · 234 yds/g · 22-13 TD-INT · +0.16 EPA/db
- Jauan Jennings WR5.8 tgt/g · 19% share · 42 yds/g · 9 TD · aDOT 10.3
- George Kittle TEQuestionable5.9 tgt/g · 20% share · 53 yds/g · 7 TD · aDOT 6.7
- Kendrick Bourne WR3.7 tgt/g · 11% share · 37 yds/g · 0 TD · aDOT 11.3
- Ricky Pearsall WR5.5 tgt/g · 17% share · 53 yds/g · 0 TD · aDOT 13.8
- Christian McCaffrey RBQuestionable17.7 car/g · 68 yds/g · 3.8 ypc · 10 TD · −0.08 EPA/car
- Brian Robinson RB5.6 car/g · 24 yds/g · 4.3 ypc · 2 TD · −0.03 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Season
| MIA | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 7-10 | Record | 13-6 |
| 20.4 | Points for / game | 24.5 |
| 24.9 | Points against / game | 22.7 |
| 5-4 / 2-6 | Home / road | 5-3 / 8-3 |
| 8-9 | Against the spread | 12-7 |
| 10-7 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 11-8 |
| L W L L W | Last 5 | L W L W W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| MIA | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 1468 | Elo | 1554 |
| #21 of 32 | Rank | #9 of 32 |
| −2.9 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +2.5 |
| −1.8 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −1.1 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Efficiency
| MIA | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.008 | EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play, nflverse. The single best efficiency number. | 0.060 |
| 0.085 | EPA / play allowed | 0.071 |
| 195 | Pass yards / game | 250 |
| 120 | Rush yards / game | 105 |
| 231 | Pass yards allowed | 232 |
| 132 | Rush yards allowed | 113 |
| 1.3 / 1.2 | Turnovers / takeaways | 1.2 / 1.0 |
| 2.2 / 2.3 | Sacks allowed / made | 1.6 / 1.2 |
| 16.4 | First downs / game | 20.5 |
| 48 | Penalty yards / game | 37 |
| +13.4 | QB EPA / gameThe listed starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games. | +6.7 · #7 of 52 |
Efficiency is from the 2025 season until this one has games. Source: nflverse.
Head to head
| 2024 | SF 17 at MIA 29 | MIA · MIA covered |
| 2022 | MIA 17 at SF 33 | SF · SF covered |
| 2020 | MIA 43 at SF 17 | MIA · MIA covered |
| 2016 | SF 24 at MIA 31 | MIA · push |
| 2012 | MIA 13 at SF 27 | SF · SF covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- SF +3.9 pts
- Home field
- SF +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Quarterback
- Usual starters — no adjustment
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- SF -10.5
- Total
- 46.5
- Moneyline
- MIA +490 · SF -675
| Book | SF spread | Total | MIA ML | SF ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| betus | +10.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110/-110) | — | — |
| draftkings | +10.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110/-110) | — | -535 |
| williamhill_us | +10.5 (-110) | 45.5 (-110/-110) | — | -550 |
Miami Dolphins injuries
- Darrell Baker Jr. CBOut
- Storm Duck CBOut
- Ben Sims TEInjured Reserve
- Cole Turner TEInjured Reserve
- Kenneth Grant DTInjured Reserve
- Trey Moore LBInjured Reserve
- Jacob Rodriguez LBQuestionable
- Ollie Gordon II RBQuestionable
- Will Kacmarek TEQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
San Francisco 49ers injuries
- Isaac Guerendo RBOut
- Mykel Williams DEOut
- Austen Pleasants OTInjured Reserve
- Brett Toth CInjured Reserve
- Christian Kirk WRInjured Reserve
- Nate Hobbs CBInjured Reserve
- Nick Martin LBInjured Reserve
- Nick Zakelj OTInjured Reserve
- Sam Okuayinonu DTInjured Reserve
- Christian McCaffrey RBQuestionable
- De'Zhaun Stribling WRQuestionable
- Ephesians Prysock CBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.