Dolphins vs 49ers Prediction — NFL Week 2, Sep 20, 2026

Model pick: 49ers (77%), locked Sep 20; 49ers won 35–13 (graded a hit).

Miami Dolphins

0-4

Modelpredicted

17 – 27

Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET

Levi's Stadium · 77° · 52% precip

Final

San Francisco 49ers

4-0

MarketSpread SF -13 (opened SF -10.5)Total 45Moneyline MIA +700 · SF -11007 books

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The pick

locked before kickoff

Win chance

77%San Francisco 49ersStrong✓

No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.

Model margin

SF by 10.1market SF by 13

Model total

44.5 pointsmarket 45

Why the model calls it

The model has San Francisco 49ers at 77% to win, with the market at SF by 13.
SF has the advantage in passing: SF passing ranks #1, MIA defends it at #30; the other way MIA #27 into SF's #18.
SF has the advantage in big plays: SF explosive pass rate ranks #3, MIA defends it at #23; the other way MIA #20 into SF's #2.
Rest: SF has 3 more days since its last game (SF 10d, MIA 7d).
Form: SF has the better last five games by 28.3 points a game (SF +14.5, MIA -13.8).
Home field is with SF, which supports the pick.

ContextThe model makes it SF by 10.1 against a market SF by 13: 2.9 points of daylight in MIA's favour. The model's total is 44.5 against a line of 45: in line with the market. The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Model SF by 10.1 · market SF by 13

ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.

Passing game

Clear advantage

SF passing ranks #1, MIA defends it at #30; the other way MIA #27 into SF's #18.

Rushing game

Even

MIA rushing ranks #27, SF defends it at #19; the other way SF #15 into MIA's #6.

Third down & red zone

Clear advantage

SF red-zone touchdown rate ranks #1, MIA defends it at #20; the other way MIA #32 into SF's #5.

Big plays

Clear advantage

SF explosive pass rate ranks #3, MIA defends it at #23; the other way MIA #20 into SF's #2.

Pass protection & rush

Clear advantage

SF sack rate ranks #1, MIA defends it at #28; the other way MIA #27 into SF's #26.

Ball security

Slight advantage

SF turnovers / game ranks #3, MIA defends it at #25; the other way MIA #19 into SF's #31.

Form (last 5)

Clear advantage

SF +14.5 per game over the last five, MIA −13.8.

Market

Clear advantage

Consensus has SF by 13; the model says SF by 10.1.

the market, for comparison

Where the lines sit

3,893 NFL games since 2012

Marginmarket SF by 13 · model SF by 10.1

Mkt SF 13

Model SF 10.1

← MIA by 28tieSF by 28 →

2.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 13, a number 2.3% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).

Totalmarket 45 · model 44.5

Mkt 45

Model 44.5

20 pts4672 pts

No whole-number total falls between 45 and 44.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.

Sharp read

tap to open

Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.

Spread

No sharp side yet

Opened

SF -11

Market maker now

SF -13.25

▲ 0.3 since open

Retail now

SF -13

in line

10 moves7 books2 led

Wed, Sep 16, 1:20 AM first sharp move: SF -13 → SF -13.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still SF -11.5 at that point

Total

No sharp side yet

Opened

46.5

Market maker now

45.3

no move

Retail now

in line

3 moves7 books0 led

The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

Dolphins vs 49ers Prediction — NFL Week 2, Sep 20, 2026

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

Sharp read

Dolphins vs 49ers Prediction — NFL Week 2, Sep 20, 2026

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

Sharp read

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit