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Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · SoFi Stadium · Indoors
LAC -10.5 · O/U 46.5
ARI +425 · LAC -575
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
LAC -575
74%
model margin LAC by 8.7
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
ARI +10.5
51%
1.8 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 46.5
52%
model total 41.7
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 1390 | -2.0 | -4.4 | — | 0 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 1524 | -3.0 | 3.2 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- LAC +134 Elo
- Home field
- LAC +2.5 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- Indoors
- Model margin
- LAC by 8.7
- Market spread
- LAC -10.5
- Model total
- 41.7 vs 46.5
- Moneyline
- ARI +425 · LAC -575
Arizona Cardinals injuries
- Tip Reiman TEOut
- Chase Bisontis GInjured Reserve
- James Conner RBInjured Reserve
- Trey Benson RBInjured Reserve
- Zachary Carter DTInjured Reserve
- Blake Gillikin PQuestionable
- Dadrion Taylor-Demerson SQuestionable
- Jeremiyah Love RBQuestionable
- Will Johnson CBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Los Angeles Chargers injuries
- Isaiah World OTOut
- Branson Taylor GInjured Reserve
- Dalevon Campbell WRInjured Reserve
- Denzel Perryman LBInjured Reserve
- Scott Matlock FBInjured Reserve
- Tyler Biadasz CInjured Reserve
- Brenen Thompson WRQuestionable
- Cameron Dicker PKQuestionable
- Keaton Mitchell RBQuestionable
- Rashawn Slater OTQuestionable
- Tre' Harris WRQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.