The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
74%Los Angeles ChargersStrong✗
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LAC by 8.7market LAC by 9.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
40.8 pointsmarket 47
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Los Angeles Chargers at 74% to win, with the market at LAC by 9.5.
LAC has the advantage in big plays: LAC explosive pass rate ranks #15, ARI defends it at #31; the other way ARI #32 into LAC's #24.
Counterpoint: rushing favours ARI. ARI rushing ranks #12, LAC defends it at #15; the other way LAC #26 into ARI's #2. The pick still lands on LAC because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with LAC, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LAC by 8.7 against a market LAC by 9.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 40.8 against a line of 47: 6.2 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LAC by 8.7 · market LAC by 9.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor ARI, but the model still picks LAC. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
LAC passing ranks #29, ARI defends it at #31; the other way ARI #22 into LAC's #19.
Rushing game
ARI
Clear advantage
ARI rushing ranks #12, LAC defends it at #15; the other way LAC #26 into ARI's #2.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
LAC red-zone touchdown rate ranks #15, ARI defends it at #25; the other way ARI #16 into LAC's #14.
Big plays
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC explosive pass rate ranks #15, ARI defends it at #31; the other way ARI #32 into LAC's #24.
Pass protection & rush
ARI
Slight advantage
ARI sack rate ranks #8, LAC defends it at #7; the other way LAC #26 into ARI's #12.
Ball security
ARI
Slight advantage
ARI turnovers / game ranks #13, LAC defends it at #3; the other way LAC #30 into ARI's #8.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
LAC −9.8 per game over the last five, ARI −7.5.
Market
LAC
Clear advantage
Consensus has LAC by 9.5; the model says LAC by 8.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAC by 9.5 · model LAC by 8.7
Mkt LAC 9.5
Model LAC 8.7
← ARI by 28tieLAC by 28 →
1.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 47 · model 40.8
Mkt 47
Model 40.8
20 pts4672 pts
17.3% of NFL games finish between 47 and 40.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
Sharp read
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Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
