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Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium · Indoors
MIN -1.5 · O/U 46.5
GB +102 · MIN -122
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
MIN -122
60%
model margin MIN by 3.6
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
MIN -1.5
51%
2.1 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 46.5
54%
model total 37.9
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 1525 | 0.2 | -0.6 | — | 0 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 1548 | -2.9 | 5.5 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- MIN +23 Elo
- Home field
- MIN +2.5 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- Indoors
- Model margin
- MIN by 3.6
- Market spread
- MIN -1.5
- Model total
- 37.9 vs 46.5
- Moneyline
- GB +102 · MIN -122
Green Bay Packers injuries
- Jordon Riley DTOut
- Josh Jacobs RBOut
- Luke Musgrave TEOut
- Micah Parsons DEOut
- Collin Oliver DEInjured Reserve
- Johnathan Baldwin II SInjured Reserve
- Savion Williams WRInjured Reserve
- Thomas Yassmin TEInjured Reserve
- Trey Dean III SInjured Reserve
- Tucker Kraft TEQuestionable
- Warren Brinson DTQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Minnesota Vikings injuries
- Jamal Adams LBInjured Reserve
- Jermar Jefferson RBInjured Reserve
- Kenny Dyson Jr. LBInjured Reserve
- Marcus Allen CBInjured Reserve
- Michael Jurgens CInjured Reserve
- Tyler Batty LBInjured Reserve
- Caleb Tiernan OTQuestionable
- Jacob Thomas SQuestionable
- Jakobe Thomas SQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.