Houston Texans
2026: 13-6 (last season) · Elo 1596 · #5 of 32 · 23.7 for, 17.3 against · ATS 10-9
Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.
Model on this team
No locked picks graded yet this season.
How they play
- Pass rate
- 60%
- Early-down pass rate
- 55%
- Neutral-script pass rate
- 57%
- Pass rate over expected
- −1.0%
- Seconds per play
- 29.7
- No-huddle
- 4%
- Shotgun
- 62%
- Play-action rate
- 22%
- RPO rate
- 2%
Offense · best and worst (of 32)
- Sack rate
- #9 · 5.1%
- Turnovers / game
- #12 · 1.00
- EPA / dropback
- #18 · +0.03
- Yards / dropback
- #18 · 6.0
- Explosive rush rate
- #30 · 7.5%
- EPA / rush
- #30 · −0.11
- Red-zone touchdown rate
- #29 · 46%
- Rush success rate
- #29 · 37%
Defense · best and worst (of 32)
- EPA / dropback
- #1 · −0.16
- Pass success rate
- #1 · 38%
- Yards / dropback
- #2 · 5.4
- EPA / rush
- #2 · −0.16
- Explosive pass rate
- #17 · 8.1%
- YAC / completion
- #15 · 5.0
- Red-zone touchdown rate
- #13 · 55%
- Sack rate generated
- #5 · 8.1%
Houston Texans · key players
- C.J. Stroud QB19.6/31.4 · 219 yds/g · 21-13 TD-INT · +0.05 EPA/db
- Nico Collins WR7.9 tgt/g · 24% share · 71 yds/g · 6 TD · aDOT 12.5
- Dalton Schultz TE5.9 tgt/g · 18% share · 44 yds/g · 3 TD · aDOT 6.1
- Jayden Higgins WR4.3 tgt/g · 13% share · 33 yds/g · 6 TD · aDOT 12.5
- Xavier Hutchinson WR4.1 tgt/g · 12% share · 27 yds/g · 3 TD · aDOT 10.0
- Woody Marks RB12.7 car/g · 46 yds/g · 3.6 ypc · 3 TD · −0.15 EPA/car
- Nick Chubb RB8.0 car/g · 33 yds/g · 4.2 ypc · 3 TD · −0.06 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
2026 schedule
| Date | Opponent | Result | Line | Model | ATS | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13W1 | vs Buffalo Bills | — | +0.5 | HOU 53% | — | — |
| Sep 20W2 | vs Cincinnati Bengals | — | -2.5 | — | — | — |
| Sep 27W3 | at Indianapolis Colts | — | -1.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 4W4 | vs Dallas Cowboys | — | -2.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 11W5 | at Tennessee Titans | — | -3.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 18W6 | vs Jacksonville Jaguars | — | +1.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 25W7 | vs New York Giants | — | -5.5 | — | — | — |
| Nov 8W9 | at Los Angeles Chargers | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 15W10 | at Cleveland Browns | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 19W11 | vsIndianapolis Colts | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 29W12 | vs Baltimore Ravens | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 6W13 | at Pittsburgh Steelers | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 13W14 | at Washington Commanders | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 20W15 | vsJacksonville Jaguars | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 24W16 | at Philadelphia Eagles | — | +2.5 | — | — | — |
| Jan 4W17 | at Green Bay Packers | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan 10W18 | vsTennessee Titans | — | — | — | — | — |
Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 0 played.