The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
60%Pittsburgh SteelersSolid✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PIT by 3.5market PIT by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.3 pointsmarket 40.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Pittsburgh Steelers at 60% to win, with the market at PIT by 6.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Aaron Rodgers starting for Pittsburgh Steelers, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: rushing favours ATL. ATL rushing ranks #2, PIT defends it at #17; the other way PIT #8 into ATL's #1. The pick still lands on PIT because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with PIT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it PIT by 3.5 against a market PIT by 6.5: 3.0 points of daylight in ATL's favour. The model's total is 42.3 against a line of 40.5: 1.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PIT by 3.5 · market PIT by 6.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor ATL, but the model still picks PIT. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
ATL passing ranks #31, PIT defends it at #16; the other way PIT #28 into ATL's #11.
Rushing game
ATL
Clear advantage
ATL rushing ranks #2, PIT defends it at #17; the other way PIT #8 into ATL's #1.
Third down & red zone
ATL
Clear advantage
ATL red-zone touchdown rate ranks #4, PIT defends it at #15; the other way PIT #29 into ATL's #11.
Big plays
ATL
Clear advantage
ATL explosive pass rate ranks #8, PIT defends it at #30; the other way PIT #16 into ATL's #14.
Pass protection & rush
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT sack rate ranks #24, ATL defends it at #27; the other way ATL #23 into PIT's #8.
Ball security
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT turnovers / game ranks #24, ATL defends it at #22; the other way ATL #26 into PIT's #6.
Form (last 5)
ATL
Slight advantage
PIT −2.5 per game over the last five, ATL +1.0.
Market
PIT
Clear advantage
Consensus has PIT by 6.5; the model says PIT by 3.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket PIT by 6.5 · model PIT by 3.5
Mkt PIT 6.5
Model PIT 3.5
← ATL by 28tiePIT by 28 →
8.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 40.5 · model 42.3
Mkt 40.5
Model 42.3
20 pts4672 pts
5.1% of NFL games finish between 40.5 and 42.3. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: PITModel disagrees
Opened
PIT -3
→
Market maker now
PIT -4.75
▲ 1.8 since open
→
Retail now
PIT -3.5
1.3 behind
26 moves24 books0 led
Mon, Sep 7, 1:20 AM first sharp move: PIT -3 → PIT -3.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still PIT -3.25 at that point
Total
No sharp side yet
Opened
42
→
Market maker now
41.5
no move
→
Retail now
41.8
in line
19 moves24 books0 led
Wed, Sep 9, 6:45 PM first sharp move: 41.5 → 42
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 42 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
