Ravens vs Colts Prediction — NFL Week 1, Sep 13, 2026

Model pick: Ravens (56%), locked Sep 13; Ravens won 41–23 (graded a hit).

Baltimore Ravens

3-1

Modelpredicted

27 – 25

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET

Lucas Oil Stadium · Indoors

Final

Indianapolis Colts

2-2

MarketSpread BAL -3 (opened BAL -3.5)Total 48.5Moneyline BAL -160 · IND +1367 books

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The pick

locked before kickoff

Win chance

56%Baltimore RavensLean✓

No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.

Model margin

BAL by 1.9market BAL by 3

Model total

51.4 pointsmarket 48.5

Why the model calls it

The model has Baltimore Ravens at 56% to win, with the market at BAL by 3.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Daniel Jones starting for Indianapolis Colts, and the model prices that in.
BAL has the advantage in passing: BAL passing ranks #2, IND defends it at #24; the other way IND #30 into BAL's #7.
BAL has the advantage in big plays: BAL explosive pass rate ranks #2, IND defends it at #18; the other way IND #29 into BAL's #17.
Counterpoint: third downs and the red zone favours IND. IND third-down conversion ranks #15, BAL defends it at #12; the other way BAL #26 into IND's #4. The pick still lands on BAL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with IND, which the pick has to overcome.

ContextThe model makes it BAL by 1.9 against a market BAL by 3: 1.1 points of daylight in IND's favour. The model's total is 51.4 against a line of 48.5: 2.9 points above it. The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Model BAL by 1.9 · market BAL by 3

ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.

Passing game

BAL

Clear advantage

BAL passing ranks #2, IND defends it at #24; the other way IND #30 into BAL's #7.

Rushing game

Even

BAL rushing ranks #6, IND defends it at #28; the other way IND #3 into BAL's #21.

Third down & red zone

IND

Slight advantage

IND third-down conversion ranks #15, BAL defends it at #12; the other way BAL #26 into IND's #4.

Big plays

BAL

Slight advantage

BAL explosive pass rate ranks #2, IND defends it at #18; the other way IND #29 into BAL's #17.

Pass protection & rush

IND

Slight advantage

IND sack rate ranks #15, BAL defends it at #24; the other way BAL #17 into IND's #17.

Ball security

BAL

Clear advantage

BAL turnovers / game ranks #4, IND defends it at #28; the other way IND #27 into BAL's #11.

Form (last 5)

BAL

Slight advantage

IND −0.5 per game over the last five, BAL +5.0.

Market

BAL

Slight advantage

Consensus has BAL by 3; the model says BAL by 1.9.

the market, for comparison

Where the lines sit

3,893 NFL games since 2012

Marginmarket BAL by 3 · model BAL by 1.9

Mkt BAL 3

Model BAL 1.9

← BAL by 28tieIND by 28 →

2.2% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).

Totalmarket 48.5 · model 51.4

Mkt 48.5

Model 51.4

20 pts4672 pts

8.8% of NFL games finish between 48.5 and 51.4. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.

Sharp read

tap to open

Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.

Spread

Sharp side: INDModel agrees

Opened

BAL -3.5

Market maker now

BAL -3

▲ 0.5 since open

Retail now

BAL -3.5

0.5 behind

9 moves24 books0 led

Thu, Sep 10, 6:24 PM first sharp move: BAL -3.5 → BAL -3
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still BAL -3.5 at that point

Total

No sharp side yet

Opened

Market maker now

48.3

▲ 0.3 since open

Retail now

in line

13 moves24 books0 led

Sun, Sep 13, 11:20 AM first sharp move: 47.5 → 48.5
1 book followed within six hours
Retail was still 47.8 at that point

The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

Ravens vs Colts Prediction — NFL Week 1, Sep 13, 2026

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

Sharp read

Ravens vs Colts Prediction — NFL Week 1, Sep 13, 2026

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

Sharp read

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit