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New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Ford Field · Indoors
DET -7 · O/U 49.5
NO +250 · DET -310
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
DET -310
72%
model margin DET by 7.7
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Coin flip
DET -7
50%
0.7 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 49.5
51%
model total 46.0
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 1437 | -2.3 | 0.6 | — | 0 |
| Detroit Lions | 1551 | 2.7 | -0.6 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- DET +114 Elo
- Home field
- DET +2.5 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- Indoors
- Model margin
- DET by 7.7
- Market spread
- DET -7
- Model total
- 46.0 vs 49.5
- Moneyline
- NO +250 · DET -310
New Orleans Saints injuries
- Mason Tipton WROut
- David Long Jr. CBInjured Reserve
- Jaylan Ford LBInjured Reserve
- Jordyn Tyson WRInjured Reserve
- Lorenzo Styles Jr. SInjured Reserve
- Moliki Matavao TEInjured Reserve
- Rejzohn Wright CBInjured Reserve
- Ty Chandler RBInjured Reserve
- Alvin Kamara RBQuestionable
- John Ridgeway III DTQuestionable
- Kendre Miller RBQuestionable
- Oscar Delp TEQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Detroit Lions injuries
- Brian Branch SOut
- Giovanni Manu OTOut
- Kerby Joseph SOut
- Cade Mays CInjured Reserve
- Damone Clark LBInjured Reserve
- Isiah Pacheco RBInjured Reserve
- Michael Niese GInjured Reserve
- Payton Turner DEInjured Reserve
- Derrick Moore DEQuestionable
- D.J. Reed CBQuestionable
- Ennis Rakestraw Jr. CBQuestionable
- Jimmy Rolder LBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.