The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
69%Detroit LionsSolid✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DET by 6.8market DET by 7
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.0 pointsmarket 50
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Detroit Lions at 69% to win, with the market at DET by 7.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Jared Goff starting for Detroit Lions, and the model prices that in.
DET has the advantage in passing: DET passing ranks #6, NO defends it at #27; the other way NO #20 into DET's #29.
DET has the advantage in rushing: DET rushing ranks #14, NO defends it at #32; the other way NO #17 into DET's #27.
Counterpoint: third downs and the red zone favours NO. NO third-down conversion ranks #5, DET defends it at #31; the other way DET #14 into NO's #26. The pick still lands on DET because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with DET, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DET by 6.8 against a market DET by 7: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 46.0 against a line of 50: 4.0 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DET by 6.8 · market DET by 7
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
DET
Slight advantage
DET passing ranks #6, NO defends it at #27; the other way NO #20 into DET's #29.
Rushing game
DET
Slight advantage
DET rushing ranks #14, NO defends it at #32; the other way NO #17 into DET's #27.
Third down & red zone
NO
Slight advantage
NO third-down conversion ranks #5, DET defends it at #31; the other way DET #14 into NO's #26.
Big plays
DET
Slight advantage
DET explosive rush rate ranks #3, NO defends it at #30; the other way NO #32 into DET's #31.
Pass protection & rush
DET
Clear advantage
DET sack rate ranks #10, NO defends it at #18; the other way NO #18 into DET's #6.
Ball security
DET
Clear advantage
DET turnovers / game ranks #1, NO defends it at #29; the other way NO #29 into DET's #19.
Form (last 5)
DET
Slight advantage
DET −2.0 per game over the last five, NO −5.8.
Market
DET
Clear advantage
Consensus has DET by 7; the model says DET by 6.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DET by 7 · model DET by 6.8
Mkt DET 7
Model DET 6.8
← NO by 28tieDET by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 7, a number 8.6% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 50 · model 46.0
Mkt 50
Model 46.0
20 pts4672 pts
8.4% of NFL games finish between 50 and 46.0. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
No sharp side yet
Opened
DET -7
→
Market maker now
DET -7
no move
→
Retail now
DET -7
in line
0 moves25 books0 led
Total
No sharp side yet
Opened
50
→
Market maker now
49.8
▼ 0.3 since open
→
Retail now
50
in line
8 moves24 books0 led
Tue, Sep 8, 7:20 AM first sharp move: 50.5 → 49.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 50 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
