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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Paycor Stadium · 91° · Mostly cloudy
CIN -3.5 · O/U 50.5
TB +170 · CIN -205
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
CIN -205
58%
model margin CIN by 2.6
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Coin flip
TB +3.5
50%
0.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Under 50.5
50%
model total 49.6
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1477 | -1.5 | -1.2 | — | 0 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 1477 | 2.3 | -2.6 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- CIN +0 Elo
- Home field
- CIN +2.5 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- CIN by 2.6
- Market spread
- CIN -3.5
- Model total
- 49.6 vs 50.5
- Moneyline
- TB +170 · CIN -205
Tampa Bay Buccaneers injuries
- David Sills V WRInjured Reserve
- Deshawn McKnight DTInjured Reserve
- Josh Hayes CBInjured Reserve
- Mohamed Kamara LBInjured Reserve
- Xavier Williams SInjured Reserve
- Emeka Egbuka WRQuestionable
- Jalen McMillan WRQuestionable
- Rueben Bain Jr. LBQuestionable
- Sean Tucker RBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Cincinnati Bengals injuries
- Brian Parker II OTInjured Reserve
- Ja'Sir Taylor CBInjured Reserve
- Dax Hill CBQuestionable
- Ja'Marr Chase WRQuestionable
- Myles Murphy DEQuestionable
- Shemar Stewart DEQuestionable
- Tee Higgins WRQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.