The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
60%Cincinnati BengalsLean✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CIN by 3.3market CIN by 4
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.6 pointsmarket 50.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Cincinnati Bengals at 60% to win, with the market at CIN by 4.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Baker Mayfield starting for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the model prices that in.
CIN has the advantage in passing: CIN passing ranks #14, TB defends it at #13; the other way TB #32 into CIN's #10.
Counterpoint: rushing favours TB. TB rushing ranks #13, CIN defends it at #14; the other way CIN #18 into TB's #4. The pick still lands on CIN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: CIN has the better last five games by 8.0 points a game (CIN +3.0, TB -5.0).
Home field is with CIN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it CIN by 3.3 against a market CIN by 4: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 49.6 against a line of 50.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CIN by 3.3 · market CIN by 4
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN passing ranks #14, TB defends it at #13; the other way TB #32 into CIN's #10.
Rushing game
TB
Clear advantage
TB rushing ranks #13, CIN defends it at #14; the other way CIN #18 into TB's #4.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
CIN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #23, TB defends it at #6; the other way TB #31 into CIN's #3.
Big plays
=
Even
TB explosive pass rate ranks #28, CIN defends it at #20; the other way CIN #17 into TB's #8.
Pass protection & rush
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN sack rate ranks #14, TB defends it at #25; the other way TB #32 into CIN's #3.
Ball security
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN turnovers / game ranks #14, TB defends it at #21; the other way TB #31 into CIN's #14.
Form (last 5)
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN +3.0 per game over the last five, TB −5.0.
Market
CIN
Clear advantage
Consensus has CIN by 4; the model says CIN by 3.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CIN by 4 · model CIN by 3.3
Mkt CIN 4
Model CIN 3.3
← TB by 28tieCIN by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 4 and 3.3, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 4. The market is on 4, a number 4.9% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 49.6
Mkt 50.5
Model 49.6
20 pts4672 pts
2.6% of NFL games finish between 50.5 and 49.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: CINModel disagrees
Opened
CIN -3.5
→
Market maker now
CIN -4
▲ 0.3 since open
→
Retail now
CIN -3.5
0.5 behind
8 moves24 books0 led
Mon, Sep 7, 1:20 AM first sharp move: CIN -3.5 → CIN -4
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still CIN -3.5 at that point
Total
No sharp side yet
Opened
50.5
→
Market maker now
50.3
▼ 0.3 since open
→
Retail now
50.5
in line
5 moves25 books0 led
Wed, Sep 9, 1:20 AM first sharp move: 51 → 50
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 50.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
