Probetrics — Sports Analytics

UTSA Roadrunners

2026: 1-0 · Elo 1606 · #43 of 240 · 45.0 for, 16.0 against · ATS 1-0

Next: at TXST · Sep 12

Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.

16061500 = average

Model on this team

Winner calls
1/1
Against the spread
0-1
Avg CLV
0.00 pts
SP+ (2026)
-1.1
SP+ (2025)
+3.7
Talent composite
656
Returning production
67%

How they play

Pass rate
52%
Standard-down share
70%
Plays / game
57
Possession / game
31:52

Offense · best and worst (of 135)

Rush explosiveness
#6 · 1.17
Turnovers / game
#20 · 0.92
Pass success rate
#21 · 47%
Completion %
#21 · 67%
Stuff rate
#103 · 21%
Pass explosiveness
#95 · 1.50
Line yards / rush
#93 · 2.81
Havoc rate faced
#84 · 16.0%

Defense · best and worst (of 135)

Havoc rate
#18 · 18.5%
Power success
#20 · 64%
Third-down conversion
#29 · 35%
Completion %
#42 · 60%
Pass explosiveness
#130 · 1.82
Points / scoring opportunity
#116 · 4.20
Interceptions forced
#103 · 1.8%
Passing PPA / play
#85 · +0.29
2026 schedule
DateOpponentResultLineModelATSCLV
Sep 5W1vsUT Rio Grande Valley VaquerosW 45–16-28.5UTSA 73%loss0.0
Sep 12W2atTexas State Bobcats+1.5UTSA 53%
Sep 19W3at#5 Texas Longhorns
Sep 26W4vsColorado State Rams
Oct 3W5atRice Owls
Oct 8W6vsSouth Florida Bulls
Oct 17W7vsNavy Midshipmen
Oct 24W8atTulane Green Wave
Nov 5W10atFlorida Atlantic Owls
Nov 14W11vsNorth Texas Mean Green
Nov 21W12atUAB Blazers
Nov 28W13vsTulsa Golden Hurricane

Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 1 played.