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UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at UTSA Roadrunners
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · Alamodome · Indoors
UTSA -28.5 · O/U 59.5
RGV +2000 · UTSA -6500
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
UTSA -6500
73%
model margin UTSA by 10.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
RGV +28.5
56%
18.0 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 59.5
52%
model total 64.0
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros | — | — | — | — | — |
| UTSA Roadrunners | 1634 | 9.2 | 2.7 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- UTSA +134 Elo
- Home field
- UTSA +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- Indoors
- Model margin
- UTSA by 10.5
- Market spread
- UTSA -28.5
- Model total
- 64.0 vs 59.5
- Moneyline
- RGV +2000 · UTSA -6500
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.