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UTSA Roadrunners
1-0 · #43 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
UFCU Stadium · 94° · 19 mph wind · Mostly sunny
Texas State Bobcats
0-1 · #71 Elo
Spread TXST -1.5Total 64.5Moneyline UTSA -105 · TXST -1153 books · best UTSA -102 draftkings · TXST -102 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
UTSA -105
53%
model margin UTSA by 1.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
UTSA +1.5
51%
3.0 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 64.5
51%
model total 67.1
The read
On rating alone UTSA Roadrunners are 4.5 points better (#43 vs #71 of 240), and TXST add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: TXST rushing ranks #7, UTSA defends it at #84; the other way UTSA #35 into TXST's #58. The model lands on UTSA by 1.5 against a market TXST by 1.5, so the spread lean is UTSA by 3.0 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 67.1 against 64.5, with weather taking 2.6 off.
Who has the edge
Model: UTSA by 1.5 · market TXST by 1.5
Rating
Clear edge
UTSA
UTSA rated 4.5 points better on Elo (#71 vs #43).
Home & rest
Clear edge
TXST
TXST gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Even
—
TXST passing ranks #17, UTSA defends it at #85; the other way UTSA #43 into TXST's #89.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
TXST
TXST rushing ranks #7, UTSA defends it at #84; the other way UTSA #35 into TXST's #58.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
UTSA third-down conversion ranks #71, TXST defends it at #90; the other way TXST #23 into UTSA's #29.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
UTSA
TXST −52.0 per game over the last five, UTSA +29.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
TXST
Consensus has TXST by 1.5; the model says UTSA by 1.5.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: UTSA by 1.5 · market TXST by 1.5
UTSA RoadrunnersTexas State Bobcats
1606 Elo · #43
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
UTSA +4.5 pts
1524 Elo · #71
road
Home field
TXST +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
+13.2 pts vs TXST D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
UTSA +13.7 pts
−0.5 pts vs UTSA D
W · +29.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
UTSA +40.5 pts
L · −52.0
+3.7
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
UTSA +1.4 pts
+2.3
UTSA +1.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
TXST +1.5 pts
TXST -1.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸UTSA rush explosiveness (#6) against a TXST defense ranked #109 at stopping it
- ▸UTSA completion % (#21) against a TXST defense ranked #120 at stopping it
- ▸TXST pass explosiveness (#31) against a UTSA defense ranked #130 at stopping it
- ▸TXST points / scoring opportunity (#21) against a UTSA defense ranked #116 at stopping it
- ▸TXST defense (#10 stuff rate forced) against a UTSA offense ranked #103
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
UTSA Roadrunners offense vs Texas State Bobcats defense
ranks of 135| UTSA off | TXST def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 52% | 46% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 70% | 67% | · |
| Plays / game | 57 | 63 | · |
| Possession / game | 31:52 | 30:50 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.33#43 | +0.30#89 | UTSA |
| Pass success rate | 47%#21 | 43%#87 | UTSA |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.50#95 | 1.61#96 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.2#68 | 7.1#65 | · |
| Completion % | 67%#21 | 66%#120 | UTSA |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.5%#68 | 1.7%#107 | UTSA |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.19#35 | +0.08#58 | · |
| Rush success rate | 45%#48 | 40%#49 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.17#6 | 1.06#109 | UTSA |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.81#93 | 2.67#25 | TXST |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 21%#103 | 24%#10 | TXST |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 73%#67 | 70%#57 | · |
| Yards / rush | 5.1#24 | 4.3#75 | UTSA |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.14#54 | +0.13#89 | UTSA |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.45#21 | +0.28#64 | UTSA |
| Third-down conversion | 40%#71 | 41%#90 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.23#27 | 3.98#98 | UTSA |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 16.0%#84 | 15.7%#69 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.92#20 | 0.92#110 | UTSA |
Texas State Bobcats offense vs UTSA Roadrunners defense
ranks of 135| TXST off | UTSA def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 42% | 49% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 71% | 65% | · |
| Plays / game | 68 | 52 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:10 | 28:08 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.42#17 | +0.29#85 | TXST |
| Pass success rate | 47%#25 | 40%#49 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.65#31 | 1.82#130 | TXST |
| Yards / pass attempt | 9.0#9 | 7.3#82 | TXST |
| Completion % | 70%#5 | 60%#42 | TXST |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.5%#69 | 1.8%#103 | TXST |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.28#7 | +0.12#84 | TXST |
| Rush success rate | 46%#43 | 40%#45 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.15#10 | 0.97#73 | TXST |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.13#34 | 2.86#61 | TXST |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 16%#35 | 18%#75 | TXST |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 67%#101 | 64%#20 | UTSA |
| Yards / rush | 5.2#23 | 4.3#71 | TXST |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.24#9 | +0.12#82 | TXST |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.54#6 | +0.30#69 | TXST |
| Third-down conversion | 46%#23 | 35%#29 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.42#21 | 4.20#116 | TXST |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 12.2%#16 | 18.5%#18 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.31#79 | 1.38#57 | · |
Season
| UTSA | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 0-1 |
| 45.0 | Points for / game | 7.0 |
| 16.0 | Points against / game | 59.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W | Last 5 | L |
Power ratings
| UTSA | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1606 | Elo | 1524 |
| #43 of 240 | Rank | #71 of 240 |
| +10.4 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +3.7 |
| +4.2 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −2.8 |
| 1500 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1765 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| UTSA | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| −1.1 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | −2.1 |
| 0.230 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.331 |
| 0.181 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.176 |
| 45% / 40% | Success rate (off / def) | 46% / 41% |
| 1.34 / 1.38 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.36 / 1.32 |
| 656 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 625 |
| 67% | Returning production | 76% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | TXST 43 at UTSA 36 | TXST · TXST covered |
| 2024 | UTSA 10 at TXST 49 | TXST · TXST covered |
| 2023 | TXST 13 at UTSA 20 | UTSA · TXST covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- UTSA +4.5 pts
- Home field
- TXST +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- -2.6 pts on the total
- Model margin
- UTSA by 1.5
- Model total
- 67.1 vs 64.5
Market · 3 books
- Spread
- TXST -1.5
- Total
- 64.5
- Moneyline
- UTSA -105 · TXST -115
- Best price
- UTSA -102 draftkings · TXST -102 fanduel
| Book | TXST spread | Total | UTSA ML | TXST ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | -1.5 (-110) | 64.5 (-108/-112) | -102 | -118 |
| fanduel | — | — | -118 | -102 |
| hardrockbet | — | — | -105 | -115 |
Spreadopened TXST -1.5 · now TXST -1.5
Totalopened 64.5 · now 64.5
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.