Probetrics — Sports Analytics

New Mexico Lobos

2026: 9-4 (last season) · Elo 1527 · #69 of 240 · 27.1 for, 22.3 against · ATS 7-6

Next: vs CMU · Sep 5

Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.

15271500 = average

Model on this team

No locked picks graded yet this season.

SP+ (2026)
0.0
SP+ (2025)
+0.9
Talent composite
568
Returning production
58%

How they play

Pass rate
45%
Standard-down share
69%
Plays / game
64
Possession / game
30:04

Offense · best and worst (of 135)

Stuff rate
#13 · 14%
Line yards / rush
#28 · 3.16
Completion %
#39 · 65%
Power success
#45 · 75%
Turnovers / game
#123 · 1.77
Pass success rate
#96 · 39%
Passing PPA / play
#86 · +0.21
Standard-down PPA
#81 · +0.09

Defense · best and worst (of 135)

Stuff rate forced
#15 · 23%
Points / scoring opportunity
#17 · 3.01
Line yards / rush
#18 · 2.62
Yards / rush
#18 · 3.4
Completion %
#132 · 68%
Power success
#126 · 83%
Third-down conversion
#81 · 40%
Yards / pass attempt
#76 · 7.2
2026 schedule
DateOpponentResultLineModelATSCLV
Sep 5W1vsCentral Michigan Chippewas-11UNM 74%
Sep 12W2vsMercyhurst LakersUNM 60%
Sep 19W3at#10 Oklahoma Sooners
Sep 26W4atNew Mexico State Aggies
Oct 3W5vsUTEP Miners
Oct 17W7atHawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Oct 24W8vsNorth Dakota State Bison
Oct 31W9atSan José State Spartans
Nov 6W10atNevada Wolf Pack
Nov 14W11vsUNLV Rebels
Nov 21W12atWyoming Cowboys
Nov 28W13vsAir Force Falcons

Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 0 played.