Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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North Dakota State Bison
2-0 · #61 Elo
at
Sat, Oct 24, 10:00 PM ET
University Stadium (NM)
New Mexico Lobos
1-0 · #69 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —

The read

On rating alone North Dakota State Bison are 1.7 points better (#61 vs #69 of 240), and UNM add 0.0 for home field.

Who has the edge

Rating
Slight edge
NDSU
NDSU rated 1.7 points better on Elo (#69 vs #61).
Home & rest
Even
—
UNM gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Even
—
UNM +31.0 per game over the last five, NDSU +32.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin

The margin, factor by factor

North Dakota State BisonNew Mexico Lobos
1559 Elo · #61
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
NDSU +1.7 pts
1527 Elo · #69
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−4.2 pts vs UNM D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
NDSU +2.4 pts
−6.6 pts vs NDSU D
W W · +32.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
NDSU +0.5 pts
W · +31.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—

Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).

Dissect the matchup

CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)

Season

NDSUUNM
2-0Record1-0
35.5Points for / game38.0
3.5Points against / game7.0
2-0 / 0-0Home / road1-0 / 0-0
1-1Against the spread1-0
0-2Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean.0-1
W WLast 5W

Power ratings

NDSUUNM
1559Elo1527
#61 of 240Rank#69 of 240
+1.3Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted.+0.3
+6.9Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good.+5.5
1432Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season.—

Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.

Advanced

NDSUUNM
−1.8SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average.0.0
0.296Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD).0.158
-0.404Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better.0.105
48% / 28%Success rate (off / def)41% / 39%
1.14 / 1.03Explosiveness (off / def)1.25 / 1.23
516Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster.568
—Returning production58%

Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Head to head

No meetings in our history.

How the margin was built

Rating gap
NDSU +1.7 pts
Home field
UNM +— pts
Rest
Even
Weather / roof
— pts on the total
Model margin
—
Model total
—

Market

Spread
—
Total
—
Moneyline
—

Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.