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Central Michigan Chippewas at New Mexico Lobos
Sat, Sep 5, 10:00 PM ET · University Stadium (NM) · 85° · Mostly cloudy
UNM -10.5 · O/U 47.5
CMU +340 · UNM -440
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
UNM -440
74%
model margin UNM by 11.2
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Coin flip
UNM -10.5
50%
0.7 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 47.5
51%
model total 45.5
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Michigan Chippewas | 1468 | -3.8 | 2.5 | — | 0 |
| New Mexico Lobos | 1614 | 0.3 | 5.5 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- UNM +146 Elo
- Home field
- UNM +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- UNM by 11.2
- Market spread
- UNM -10.5
- Model total
- 45.5 vs 47.5
- Moneyline
- CMU +340 · UNM -440
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.