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Sat, Sep 12, 4:00 PM ET
University Stadium (NM) · 88° · Mostly cloudy
New Mexico Lobos
1-0 · #69 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline MERC +926 · UNM -42542 books · best MERC +1011 polymarketus · UNM -3233 polymarketus
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
UNM -4254
60%
model margin UNM by 4.6
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 51.8
The read
On rating alone New Mexico Lobos are 1.5 points better, and UNM add 3.1 for home field.
Who has the edge
Model: UNM by 4.6
Rating
Slight edge
UNM
UNM rated 1.5 points better on Elo.
Home & rest
Clear edge
UNM
UNM gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
UNM
UNM +31.0 per game over the last five, MERC −37.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: UNM by 4.6
Mercyhurst LakersNew Mexico Lobos
—
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
UNM +1.5 pts
1527 Elo · #69
road
Home field
UNM +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
—
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
not priced
—
L · −37.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
UNM +34.0 pts
W · +31.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| MERC | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| 14.0 | Points for / game | 38.0 |
| 51.0 | Points against / game | 7.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| L | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| MERC | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| — | Elo | 1527 |
| — | Rank | #69 of 240 |
| — | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +0.3 |
| — | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +5.5 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- UNM +1.5 pts
- Home field
- UNM +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- UNM by 4.6
- Model total
- 51.8 vs —
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- MERC +926 · UNM -4254
- Best price
- MERC +1011 polymarketus · UNM -3233 polymarketus
| Book | UNM spread | Total | MERC ML | UNM ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +841 | -5276 |
| polymarketus | — | — | +1011 | -3233 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.