← College Football slate
Texas Tech Red Raiders
1-0 · #4 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM ET
Reser Stadium · 76° · 11 mph wind · Intermittent clouds
Oregon State Beavers
0-1 · #229 Elo
Spread ORST -0.5 (opened TTU -27.5)Total 57.5Moneyline TTU -7500 · ORST +20002 books · best TTU -5000 draftkings · ORST +2200 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
TTU -7500
97%
model margin TTU by 32.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
TTU +0.5
61%
32.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 57.5
55%
model total 42.8
The read
On rating alone Texas Tech Red Raiders are 35.1 points better (#4 vs #229 of 240), and ORST add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: TTU passing ranks #38, ORST defends it at #97; the other way ORST #122 into TTU's #3. The model lands on TTU by 32.1 against a market ORST by 0.5, so the spread lean is TTU by 32.6 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 42.8 against 57.5.
Who has the edge
Model: TTU by 32.1 · market ORST by 0.5
Rating
Clear edge
TTU
TTU rated 35.1 points better on Elo (#229 vs #4).
Home & rest
Clear edge
ORST
ORST gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Clear edge
TTU
TTU passing ranks #38, ORST defends it at #97; the other way ORST #122 into TTU's #3.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
TTU
TTU rushing ranks #41, ORST defends it at #52; the other way ORST #119 into TTU's #1.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
TTU
TTU third-down conversion ranks #12, ORST defends it at #16; the other way ORST #102 into TTU's #7.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
TTU
ORST −13.0 per game over the last five, TTU +23.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Even
—
Consensus has ORST by 0.5; the model says TTU by 32.1.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: TTU by 32.1 · market ORST by 0.5
Texas Tech Red RaidersOregon State Beavers
1896 Elo · #4
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
TTU +35.1 pts
1264 Elo · #229
road
Home field
ORST +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
+7.8 pts vs ORST D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
TTU +29.9 pts
−22.1 pts vs TTU D
W · +23.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
TTU +18.0 pts
L · −13.0
+27.6
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
TTU +43.5 pts
−15.9
TTU +0.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
ORST +0.5 pts
ORST -0.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸TTU defense (#4 passing-down ppa allowed) against a ORST offense ranked #130
- ▸TTU defense (#2 points / scoring opportunity allowed) against a ORST offense ranked #127
- ▸TTU defense (#9 pass explosiveness allowed) against a ORST offense ranked #132
- ▸TTU defense (#3 passing ppa / play allowed) against a ORST offense ranked #122
- ▸TTU defense (#1 rushing ppa / play allowed) against a ORST offense ranked #119
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Texas Tech Red Raiders offense vs Oregon State Beavers defense
ranks of 135| TTU off | ORST def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 52% | 49% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 66% | 67% | · |
| Plays / game | 59 | 57 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:10 | 28:08 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.35#38 | +0.31#97 | TTU |
| Pass success rate | 43%#51 | 36%#18 | ORST |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.58#52 | 1.98#135 | TTU |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.0#36 | 7.7#105 | TTU |
| Completion % | 65%#35 | 57%#21 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.5%#102 | 3.7%#15 | ORST |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.17#41 | +0.07#52 | · |
| Rush success rate | 43%#71 | 41%#51 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.09#21 | 0.94#56 | TTU |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.87#79 | 2.60#17 | ORST |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 18%#58 | 22%#22 | ORST |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 80%#15 | 68%#43 | TTU |
| Yards / rush | 4.7#42 | 4.7#99 | TTU |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.16#44 | +0.05#38 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.40#28 | +0.44#125 | TTU |
| Third-down conversion | 49%#12 | 33%#16 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.00#41 | 3.41#46 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 15.2%#62 | 17.2%#38 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.29#73 | 0.83#117 | TTU |
Oregon State Beavers offense vs Texas Tech Red Raiders defense
ranks of 135| ORST off | TTU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 52% | 56% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 69% | 61% | · |
| Plays / game | 63 | 52 | · |
| Possession / game | 31:52 | 29:50 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.11#122 | −0.00#3 | TTU |
| Pass success rate | 42%#68 | 31%#3 | TTU |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.32#132 | 1.39#9 | TTU |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.3#119 | 5.4#4 | TTU |
| Completion % | 60%#88 | 59%#34 | TTU |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.9%#42 | 2.1%#91 | ORST |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.01#119 | −0.16#1 | TTU |
| Rush success rate | 44%#66 | 29%#1 | TTU |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.73#134 | 0.86#16 | TTU |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.82#88 | 1.94#1 | TTU |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 16%#24 | 23%#13 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 77%#30 | 56%#3 | TTU |
| Yards / rush | 3.8#106 | 2.3#1 | TTU |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.05#105 | −0.19#1 | TTU |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.05#130 | +0.06#4 | TTU |
| Third-down conversion | 36%#102 | 30%#7 | TTU |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.89#127 | 2.41#2 | TTU |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 16.3%#89 | 23.3%#1 | TTU |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.67#116 | 2.29#2 | TTU |
Season
| TTU | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 0-1 |
| 33.0 | Points for / game | 20.0 |
| 10.0 | Points against / game | 33.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W | Last 5 | L |
Power ratings
| TTU | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1896 | Elo | 1264 |
| #4 of 240 | Rank | #229 of 240 |
| +8.1 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −5.8 |
| +16.3 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +0.2 |
| 1386 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1612 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| TTU | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| +21.8 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | −5.6 |
| 0.243 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.050 |
| -0.090 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.176 |
| 43% / 30% | Success rate (off / def) | 42% / 38% |
| 1.35 / 1.17 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.05 / 1.44 |
| 768 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 636 |
| 53% | Returning production | 58% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | ORST 14 at TTU 45 | TTU · TTU covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TTU +35.1 pts
- Home field
- ORST +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- TTU by 32.1
- Model total
- 42.8 vs 57.5
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- ORST -0.5 · opened TTU -27.5
- Total
- 57.5 · opened 49.5
- Moneyline
- TTU -7500 · ORST +2000
- Best price
- TTU -5000 draftkings · ORST +2200 fanduel
| Book | ORST spread | Total | TTU ML | ORST ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | — | — | -5000 | +1800 |
| fanduel | — | — | -10000 | +2200 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.