The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
97%Texas Tech Red RaidersStrong✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TTU by 32.4market TTU by 25.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.8 pointsmarket 52.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Texas Tech Red Raiders at 97% to win, with the market at TTU by 25.5.
TTU has the advantage in rushing: TTU rushing ranks #44, ORST defends it at #78; the other way ORST #81 into TTU's #25.
TTU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: TTU third-down conversion ranks #50, ORST defends it at #104; the other way ORST #71 into TTU's #88.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours ORST. ORST sack rate ranks #21, TTU defends it at #92; the other way TTU #64 into ORST's #23. The pick still lands on TTU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with ORST, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it TTU by 32.4 against a market TTU by 25.5: 6.9 points of daylight in TTU's favour. The model's total is 42.8 against a line of 52.5: 9.7 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TTU by 32.4 · market TTU by 25.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
ORST passing ranks #22, TTU defends it at #42; the other way TTU #54 into ORST's #59.
Rushing game
TTU
Clear advantage
TTU rushing ranks #44, ORST defends it at #78; the other way ORST #81 into TTU's #25.
Third down & red zone
TTU
Slight advantage
TTU third-down conversion ranks #50, ORST defends it at #104; the other way ORST #71 into TTU's #88.
Big plays
=
Even
ORST pass explosiveness ranks #44, TTU defends it at #73; the other way TTU #114 into ORST's #39.
Pass protection & rush
ORST
Clear advantage
ORST sack rate ranks #21, TTU defends it at #92; the other way TTU #64 into ORST's #23.
Ball security
ORST
Slight advantage
ORST turnovers / game ranks #34, TTU defends it at #13; the other way TTU #104 into ORST's #53.
Form (last 5)
TTU
Slight advantage
ORST +13.4 per game over the last five, TTU +18.6.
Market
TTU
Clear advantage
Consensus has TTU by 25.5; the model says TTU by 32.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TTU by 25.5 · model TTU by 32.4
Mkt TTU 25.5
Model TTU 32.4
← TTU by 28tieORST by 28 →
2.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 42.8
Mkt 52.5
Model 42.8
24 pts6096 pts
23.5% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 42.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
