Probetrics — Sports Analytics

Texas State Bobcats

2026: 0-1 · Elo 1524 · #71 of 240 · 7.0 for, 59.0 against · ATS 0-1

Next: vs UTSA · Sep 12

Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.

15241500 = average

Model on this team

Winner calls
1/1
Against the spread
0-1
Avg CLV
0.00 pts
SP+ (2026)
-2.1
SP+ (2025)
+2.3
Talent composite
625
Returning production
76%

How they play

Pass rate
42%
Standard-down share
71%
Plays / game
68
Possession / game
29:10

Offense · best and worst (of 135)

Completion %
#5 · 70%
Passing-down PPA
#6 · +0.54
Rushing PPA / play
#7 · +0.28
Yards / pass attempt
#9 · 9.0
Power success
#101 · 67%
Turnovers / game
#79 · 1.31
Interception rate
#69 · 2.5%
Rush success rate
#43 · 46%

Defense · best and worst (of 135)

Stuff rate forced
#10 · 24%
Line yards / rush
#25 · 2.67
Rush success rate
#49 · 40%
Power success
#57 · 70%
Completion %
#120 · 66%
Takeaways / game
#110 · 0.92
Rush explosiveness
#109 · 1.06
Interceptions forced
#107 · 1.7%
2026 schedule
DateOpponentResultLineModelATSCLV
Sep 5W1at#5 Texas LonghornsL 7–59+29.5TEX 78%loss0.0
Sep 12W2vsUTSA Roadrunners-1.5UTSA 53%
Sep 19W3vsNorth Texas Mean Green
Sep 26W4vsIncarnate Word Cardinals
Oct 3W5atSan Diego State Aztecs
Oct 15W7vsColorado State Rams
Oct 24W8vsUtah State Aggies
Oct 31W9atBoise State Broncos
Nov 7W10atOregon State Beavers
Nov 14W11vsFresno State Bulldogs
Nov 21W12vsWashington State Cougars

Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 1 played.