The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
51%Texas State BobcatsLean✗
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TXST by 0.6market TXST by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
68.9 pointsmarket 65.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Texas State Bobcats at 51% to win, with the market at TXST by 1.5.
TXST has the advantage in big plays: TXST pass explosiveness ranks #15, UTSA defends it at #46; the other way UTSA #112 into TXST's #28.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours UTSA. UTSA turnovers / game ranks #29, TXST defends it at #101; the other way TXST #122 into UTSA's #64. The pick still lands on TXST because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with TXST, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it TXST by 0.6 against a market TXST by 1.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 68.9 against a line of 65.5: 3.4 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TXST by 0.6 · market TXST by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor UTSA, but the model still picks TXST. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
TXST passing ranks #16, UTSA defends it at #47; the other way UTSA #83 into TXST's #111.
Rushing game
=
Even
TXST rushing ranks #47, UTSA defends it at #72; the other way UTSA #43 into TXST's #44.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
TXST third-down conversion ranks #5, UTSA defends it at #74; the other way UTSA #117 into TXST's #100.
Big plays
TXST
Clear advantage
TXST pass explosiveness ranks #15, UTSA defends it at #46; the other way UTSA #112 into TXST's #28.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
UTSA sack rate ranks #16, TXST defends it at #132; the other way TXST #17 into UTSA's #115.
Ball security
UTSA
Clear advantage
UTSA turnovers / game ranks #29, TXST defends it at #101; the other way TXST #122 into UTSA's #64.
Form (last 5)
UTSA
Slight advantage
TXST +1.6 per game over the last five, UTSA +5.2.
Market
TXST
Slight advantage
Consensus has TXST by 1.5; the model says TXST by 0.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TXST by 1.5 · model TXST by 0.6
Mkt TXST 1.5
Model TXST 0.6
← UTSA by 28tieTXST by 28 →
1.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 65.5 · model 68.9
Mkt 65.5
Model 68.9
24 pts6096 pts
4.4% of FBS games finish between 65.5 and 68.9. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
