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Alabama Crimson Tide
1-0 · #15 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Kroger Field · 83° · 13 mph wind · Sunny
Kentucky Wildcats
1-0 · #58 Elo
Spread ALA -10 (opened ALA -10.5)Total 48.5Moneyline ALA -410 · UK +3203 books · best ALA -375 fanduel · UK +325 hardrockbet
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
ALA -410
69%
model margin ALA by 8.4
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
UK +10
51%
1.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 48.5
51%
model total 50.2
The read
On rating alone Alabama Crimson Tide are 11.4 points better (#15 vs #58 of 240), and UK add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: ALA passing ranks #37, UK defends it at #98; the other way UK #100 into ALA's #17. The model lands on ALA by 8.4 against a market ALA by 10, so the spread lean is UK by 1.6 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%.
Who has the edge
Model: ALA by 8.4 · market ALA by 10
Rating
Clear edge
ALA
ALA rated 11.4 points better on Elo (#58 vs #15).
Home & rest
Clear edge
UK
UK gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Clear edge
ALA
ALA passing ranks #37, UK defends it at #98; the other way UK #100 into ALA's #17.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
UK rushing ranks #97, ALA defends it at #65; the other way ALA #114 into UK's #62.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
ALA
ALA third-down conversion ranks #46, UK defends it at #73; the other way UK #63 into ALA's #51.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Slight edge
ALA
UK +32.0 per game over the last five, ALA +38.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
ALA
Consensus has ALA by 10; the model says ALA by 8.4.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: ALA by 8.4 · market ALA by 10
Alabama Crimson TideKentucky Wildcats
1776 Elo · #15
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
ALA +11.4 pts
1570 Elo · #58
road
Home field
UK +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
+3.9 pts vs UK D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
ALA +14.0 pts
−10.2 pts vs ALA D
W · +38.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
ALA +3.0 pts
W · +32.0
+14.8
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
ALA +13.0 pts
+1.8
ALA -10
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
ALA +10.0 pts
UK +10
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸UK defense (#32 yards / rush allowed) against a ALA offense ranked #126
- ▸ALA defense (#17 passing ppa / play allowed) against a UK offense ranked #100
- ▸ALA defense (#26 havoc rate) against a UK offense ranked #109
- ▸UK defense (#40 rush explosiveness allowed) against a ALA offense ranked #122
- ▸ALA pass success rate (#33) against a UK defense ranked #113 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Alabama Crimson Tide offense vs Kentucky Wildcats defense
ranks of 135| ALA off | UK def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 56% | 46% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 70% | 70% | · |
| Plays / game | 61 | 60 | · |
| Possession / game | 31:35 | 29:22 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.35#37 | +0.31#98 | ALA |
| Pass success rate | 45%#33 | 45%#113 | ALA |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.57#53 | 1.55#63 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.6#53 | 8.0#116 | ALA |
| Completion % | 66%#33 | 62%#67 | ALA |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.1%#56 | 3.9%#11 | UK |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.02#114 | +0.09#62 | UK |
| Rush success rate | 40%#102 | 44%#84 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.83#122 | 0.90#40 | UK |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.73#108 | 2.89#69 | UK |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 21%#108 | 20%#53 | UK |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 67%#99 | 68%#44 | UK |
| Yards / rush | 3.4#126 | 3.7#32 | UK |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.11#68 | +0.13#90 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.40#29 | +0.31#76 | ALA |
| Third-down conversion | 42%#46 | 40%#73 | ALA |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.04#38 | 3.98#99 | ALA |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 13.5%#39 | 14.7%#92 | ALA |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.87#15 | 1.17#80 | ALA |
Kentucky Wildcats offense vs Alabama Crimson Tide defense
ranks of 135| UK off | ALA def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 47% | 48% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 69% | 65% | · |
| Plays / game | 58 | 56 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:38 | 28:25 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.19#100 | +0.11#17 | ALA |
| Pass success rate | 40%#94 | 38%#33 | ALA |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.56#59 | 1.51#49 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.6#98 | 6.4#31 | ALA |
| Completion % | 62%#64 | 62%#72 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.3%#95 | 1.3%#130 | UK |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.06#97 | +0.10#65 | ALA |
| Rush success rate | 45%#53 | 39%#31 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.82#124 | 1.00#90 | ALA |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.05#51 | 2.81#53 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 18%#50 | 19%#66 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 70%#84 | 75%#100 | · |
| Yards / rush | 3.9#99 | 3.7#37 | ALA |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.10#71 | −0.01#19 | ALA |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.02#133 | +0.25#53 | ALA |
| Third-down conversion | 40%#63 | 37%#51 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.84#56 | 3.65#66 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 17.7%#109 | 17.7%#26 | ALA |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.83#126 | 1.33#58 | ALA |
Season
| ALA | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 48.0 | Points for / game | 45.0 |
| 10.0 | Points against / game | 13.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| ALA | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 1776 | Elo | 1570 |
| #15 of 240 | Rank | #58 of 240 |
| +10.1 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +2.2 |
| +12.3 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +6.2 |
| 1623 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1425 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| ALA | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.6 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +5.2 |
| 0.198 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.076 |
| 0.082 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.184 |
| 43% / 38% | Success rate (off / def) | 42% / 44% |
| 1.27 / 1.24 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.15 / 1.23 |
| 974 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 787 |
| 26% | Returning production | 19% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2023 | ALA 49 at UK 21 | ALA · ALA covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- ALA +11.4 pts
- Home field
- UK +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- -0.5 pts on the total
- Model margin
- ALA by 8.4
- Model total
- 50.2 vs 48.5
Market · 3 books
- Spread
- ALA -10 · opened ALA -10.5
- Total
- 48.5
- Moneyline
- ALA -410 · UK +320
- Best price
- ALA -375 fanduel · UK +325 hardrockbet
| Book | UK spread | Total | ALA ML | UK ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | +10.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-108/-112) | -410 | +320 |
| fanduel | +9.5 (-106) | 48.5 (-110/-110) | -375 | +290 |
| hardrockbet | — | — | -450 | +325 |
Spreadopened ALA -8.5 · now ALA -9.5 ▼ 1.0
Totalopened 48.5 · now 48.5
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.