The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
72%Alabama Crimson TideStrong✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ALA by 10.0market ALA by 9.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.0 pointsmarket 47.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Alabama Crimson Tide at 72% to win, with the market at ALA by 9.5.
ALA has the advantage in rushing: ALA rushing ranks #12, UK defends it at #91; the other way UK #36 into ALA's #8.
ALA has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: ALA third-down conversion ranks #28, UK defends it at #122; the other way UK #137 into ALA's #15.
Form: ALA has the better last five games by 21.0 points a game (UK +7.8, ALA +28.8).
Home field is with UK, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it ALA by 10.0 against a market ALA by 9.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 49.0 against a line of 47.5: 1.5 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ALA by 10.0 · market ALA by 9.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ALA
Clear advantage
ALA passing ranks #10, UK defends it at #44; the other way UK #67 into ALA's #27.
Rushing game
ALA
Clear advantage
ALA rushing ranks #12, UK defends it at #91; the other way UK #36 into ALA's #8.
Third down & red zone
ALA
Clear advantage
ALA third-down conversion ranks #28, UK defends it at #122; the other way UK #137 into ALA's #15.
Big plays
=
Even
ALA rush explosiveness ranks #35, UK defends it at #101; the other way UK #86 into ALA's #98.
Pass protection & rush
ALA
Clear advantage
ALA sack rate ranks #111, UK defends it at #94; the other way UK #100 into ALA's #19.
Ball security
=
Even
UK turnovers / game ranks #48, ALA defends it at #3; the other way ALA #65 into UK's #10.
Form (last 5)
ALA
Clear advantage
UK +7.8 per game over the last five, ALA +28.8.
Market
ALA
Clear advantage
Consensus has ALA by 9.5; the model says ALA by 10.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ALA by 9.5 · model ALA by 10.0
Mkt ALA 9.5
Model ALA 10.0
← ALA by 28tieUK by 28 →
1.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 49.0
Mkt 47.5
Model 49.0
24 pts6096 pts
5.4% of FBS games finish between 47.5 and 49.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: UKModel disagrees
Opened
ALA -9.5
→
Market maker now
ALA -9
▲ 1 since open
→
Retail now
ALA -8.5
0.5 behind
21 moves9 books2 led
Mon, Sep 7, 8:52 PM first sharp move: ALA -9.5 → ALA -10
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still ALA -10 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the underModel disagrees
Opened
48.5
→
Market maker now
47.3
▼ 2 since open
→
Retail now
47.5
in line
23 moves11 books1 ledSteam Sat, Sep 12, 1:20 PM
Fri, Sep 11, 1:20 AM first sharp move: 49 → 48.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 49.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
