The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
68%Vanderbilt CommodoresSolid✗
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Vanderbilt Commodores 82%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
VAN by 15.7market VAN by 5.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.5 pointsmarket 48.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Vanderbilt Commodores at 68% to win, with the market at VAN by 5.5.
VAN has the advantage in big plays: VAN rush explosiveness ranks #31, ARK defends it at #80; the other way ARK #130 into VAN's #39.
VAN has the advantage in rushing: VAN rushing ranks #85, ARK defends it at #129; the other way ARK #120 into VAN's #88.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours ARK. ARK turnovers / game ranks #59, VAN defends it at #106; the other way VAN #127 into ARK's #58. The pick still lands on VAN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: ARK has the better last five games by 13.6 points a game (VAN -18.4, ARK -4.8).
Home field is with VAN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it VAN by 15.7 against a market VAN by 5.5: 10.2 points of daylight in VAN's favour. The model's total is 51.5 against a line of 48.5: 3.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model VAN by 15.7 · market VAN by 5.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
VAN passing ranks #74, ARK defends it at #90; the other way ARK #87 into VAN's #98.
Rushing game
VAN
Clear advantage
VAN rushing ranks #85, ARK defends it at #129; the other way ARK #120 into VAN's #88.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
ARK third-down conversion ranks #49, VAN defends it at #117; the other way VAN #64 into ARK's #111.
Big plays
VAN
Clear advantage
VAN rush explosiveness ranks #31, ARK defends it at #80; the other way ARK #130 into VAN's #39.
Pass protection & rush
VAN
Slight advantage
VAN sack rate ranks #67, ARK defends it at #95; the other way ARK #68 into VAN's #60.
Ball security
ARK
Clear advantage
ARK turnovers / game ranks #59, VAN defends it at #106; the other way VAN #127 into ARK's #58.
Form (last 5)
ARK
Clear advantage
VAN −18.4 per game over the last five, ARK −4.8.
Market
VAN
Clear advantage
Consensus has VAN by 5.5; the model says VAN by 15.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket VAN by 5.5 · model VAN by 15.7
Mkt VAN 5.5
Model VAN 15.7
← ARK by 28tieVAN by 28 →
17.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 51.5
Mkt 48.5
Model 51.5
24 pts6096 pts
7.4% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 51.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: ARKModel disagrees
Opened
VAN -6.5
→
Market maker now
VAN -5.5
▼ 0.8 since open
→
Retail now
VAN -5.5
in line
15 moves8 books1 led
Sat, Oct 17, 1:49 PM first sharp move: VAN -6.5 → VAN -5.5
5 books followed within six hours
Retail was still VAN -6 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the underModel disagrees
Opened
49.5
→
Market maker now
48.3
▼ 2 since open
→
Retail now
48.5
in line
19 moves8 books2 led
Sat, Oct 17, 10:00 AM first sharp move: 50 → 48
4 books followed within six hours
Retail was still 50 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
