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New Orleans (2-5) hosts Tampa Bay (2-5) at Caesars Superdome on Jan 10, 2027.
Lines post about a week before the game.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
A longer bar = a better setup for the offense: half from how high the offense ranks, half from how low the defense across from it ranks (of 32). A full bar is the best offense against the worst defense; the dashed tick is an even matchup. Biggest advantage first.
TB has the clear advantage in rushing and third-down conversion; NO's defense has it in passing, red-zone touchdown rate and sacks.
NO has the clear advantage in red-zone touchdown rate; TB's defense has it in passing, turnovers and rushing.
TB offensevs
NO defenseTB offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · NO defense in 4 (3 by a clear margin)
NO offensevsTB defenseNO offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · TB defense in 3 (3 by a clear margin)
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
210 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Mixed: few yards allowed, but leaky per play this season
NO pressures on 30% of dropbacks (#15 of 32); he completes 38% under pressure (league 34%).
109 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Both readings soft
124 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Mixed: few yards allowed, but leaky per play this season
His routes (Deep out 16%, In / dig 15%, Hitch / curl 13%): NO allowed 8.2 yds a target, league 8.4.
Same NO readings against WRs as above.
His routes (Quick out 21%, Hitch / curl 18%, In / dig 14%): NO allowed 7.1 yds a target, league 7.1.
58.4 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Quick out 33%, Hitch / curl 24%, Screen 8%): NO allowed 7.1 yds a target, league 6.9.
247 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Mixed: lots of yards allowed, but stingy per play this season
TB pressures on 36% of dropbacks (#1 of 32); he completes 29% under pressure (league 34%).
73.2 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Both readings tough
144 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Hitch / curl 19%, Quick out 14%, Deep out 13%): TB allowed 8.3 yds a target, league 8.0.
Same TB readings against WRs as above.
His routes (Slant 16%, Hitch / curl 15%, Quick out 14%): TB allowed 8.2 yds a target, league 7.9.
63.8 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Mixed: lots of yards allowed, but stingy per play this season
His routes (Quick out 29%, Hitch / curl 26%, Go 8%): TB allowed 7.7 yds a target, league 7.4.
Players: this season's attempts, carries and targets (last season before a team's first game); anyone ruled out on the injury report is left off. Routes are where his targets came from over 2024–25, each route's yards shrunk toward the league's. Books already price these matchups.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores (early in a season that reaches back into last season; each row shows how many of its games are from each season), against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
Where a player's own strength meets something tonight's opponent gives up more than most, measured against the league. Matchups like these were tested as inputs for player props and added nothing the books' lines do not already reflect: research, not a pick.
Lines from regulated US sportsbooks; the fair chance is the books' own, with their margin taken out.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers4 listedNew Orleans Saints5 listedTimes are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
The referee is posted closer to kickoff.
Book-by-book prices appear about a week before the game.
Not enough line history yet: the charts appear once the books have posted this game's numbers more than once.
Division rivals — they meet twice every season.
Tampa Bay BuccaneersNew Orleans SaintsLines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the score. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links may be affiliate links; we may earn a commission if you sign up through them.
The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 7 in 2026, 10 in 2025). A longer bar = higher in the league (rank 1 = highest, even for points allowed). A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.