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Green Bay (4-3) hosts Detroit (4-2) at Lambeau Field on Jan 10, 2027.
Lines post about a week before the game.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
DET end zone ← 100 yards → GB end zone
A longer bar = a better setup for the offense: half from how high the offense ranks, half from how low the defense across from it ranks (of 32). A full bar is the best offense against the worst defense; the dashed tick is an even matchup. Biggest advantage first.
DET has the clear advantage in red-zone touchdown rate, sacks and third-down conversion.
GB has the clear advantage in passing; DET's defense has it in rushing.
DET offensevs
GB defenseDET offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · GB defense in 2
GB offensevsDET defenseGB offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · DET defense in 3 (1 by a clear margin)
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
219 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
GB pressures on 29% of dropbacks (#16 of 32); he completes 33% under pressure (league 34%).
107 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
144 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (In / dig 20%, Hitch / curl 18%, Quick out 18%): GB allowed 7.5 yds a target, league 7.6.
Same GB readings against WRs as above.
His routes (Hitch / curl 18%, In / dig 17%, Post 11%): GB allowed 8.1 yds a target, league 8.1.
42.5 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
Both readings tough
His routes (Hitch / curl 28%, Quick out 22%, In / dig 16%): GB allowed 7.4 yds a target, league 7.5.
263 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings soft
DET pressures on 29% of dropbacks (#17 of 32); he completes 31% under pressure (league 34%).
92.6 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
167 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings soft
His routes (Hitch / curl 16%, Quick out 14%, Screen 12%): DET allowed 7.9 yds a target, league 7.9.
Same DET readings against WRs as above.
His routes (In / dig 17%, Go 17%, Post 15%): DET allowed 8.7 yds a target, league 8.8.
71.6 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings soft
His routes (Quick out 38%, Hitch / curl 15%, Screen 14%): DET allowed 6.9 yds a target, league 6.8.
Players: this season's attempts, carries and targets (last season before a team's first game); anyone ruled out on the injury report is left off. Routes are where his targets came from over 2024–25, each route's yards shrunk toward the league's. Books already price these matchups.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores (early in a season that reaches back into last season; each row shows how many of its games are from each season), against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
Where a player's own strength meets something tonight's opponent gives up more than most, measured against the league. Matchups like these were tested as inputs for player props and added nothing the books' lines do not already reflect: research, not a pick.
Lines from regulated US sportsbooks; the fair chance is the books' own, with their margin taken out.
Detroit Lions6 listedGreen Bay Packers8 listedTimes are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
The referee is posted closer to kickoff.
Book-by-book prices appear about a week before the game.
Not enough line history yet: the charts appear once the books have posted this game's numbers more than once.
Division rivals — they meet twice every season.
Detroit LionsGreen Bay PackersLines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the score. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links may be affiliate links; we may earn a commission if you sign up through them.
The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 6–7 in 2026, 10–11 in 2025). A longer bar = higher in the league (rank 1 = highest, even for points allowed). A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.