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Miami (1-5) hosts Chicago (5-2) at Hard Rock Stadium on Dec 13, 2026, 1:00 PM ET.
Lines post about a week before the game.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
CHI end zone ← 100 yards → MIA end zone
A longer bar = a better setup for the offense: half from how high the offense ranks, half from how low the defense across from it ranks (of 32). A full bar is the best offense against the worst defense; the dashed tick is an even matchup. Biggest advantage first.
CHI has the clear advantage in third-down conversion, passing and sacks.
CHI's defense has it in passing, third-down conversion and sacks.
CHI offensevs
MIA defenseCHI offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · MIA defense in 2
MIA offensevsCHI defenseMIA offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · CHI defense in 5 (3 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
231 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
MIA pressures on 27% of dropbacks (#24 of 32); he completes 34% under pressure (league 34%).
96.2 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
126 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Mixed: few yards allowed, but leaky per play this season
His routes (Hitch / curl 22%, Screen 22%, Quick out 15%): MIA allowed 7.4 yds a target, league 7.3.
Same MIA readings against WRs as above.
His routes (In / dig 14%, Deep out 14%, Hitch / curl 13%): MIA allowed 8.5 yds a target, league 8.3.
68.9 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (6 in 2026, 11 in 2025)
Both readings soft
His routes (Quick out 22%, Hitch / curl 18%, Deep out 13%): MIA allowed 8.0 yds a target, league 7.9.
239 a game, league 227 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
CHI pressures on 24% of dropbacks (#29 of 32); he completes 64% under pressure (league 34%).
91.3 a game, league 96.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
161 a game, league 141 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Screen 25%, Quick out 18%, Slant 10%): CHI allowed 7.4 yds a target, league 7.0.
Same CHI readings against WRs as above.
49.6 a game, league 54.0 · last 17 games (7 in 2026, 10 in 2025)
His routes (Quick out 35%, Hitch / curl 17%, Screen 9%): CHI allowed 7.4 yds a target, league 7.1.
Players: this season's attempts, carries and targets (last season before a team's first game); anyone ruled out on the injury report is left off. Routes are where his targets came from over 2024–25, each route's yards shrunk toward the league's. Books already price these matchups.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores (early in a season that reaches back into last season; each row shows how many of its games are from each season), against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
Where a player's own strength meets something tonight's opponent gives up more than most, measured against the league. Matchups like these were tested as inputs for player props and added nothing the books' lines do not already reflect: research, not a pick.
Lines from regulated US sportsbooks; the fair chance is the books' own, with their margin taken out.
Chicago Bears6 listedMiami Dolphins4 listedTimes are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
The referee is posted closer to kickoff.
Book-by-book prices appear about a week before the game.
Not enough line history yet: the charts appear once the books have posted this game's numbers more than once.
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (3 of the 15 seasons in our history). MIA have won the last 3.
Chicago BearsMiami DolphinsLines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the score. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links may be affiliate links; we may earn a commission if you sign up through them.
The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 32 ranked teams, over each team's last 17 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Oct 2026; 6–7 in 2026, 10–11 in 2025). A longer bar = higher in the league (rank 1 = highest, even for points allowed). A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.