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New York Jets
3-14 last yr · #30 Elo
at
Sun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Dolphins
7-10 last yr · #21 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Miami Dolphins are 4.9 points better (#21 vs #30 of 32), and MIA add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: MIA rushing ranks #9, NYJ defends it at #21; the other way NYJ #28 into MIA's #20.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
MIA
MIA rated 4.9 points better on Elo (#21 vs #30).
Home & rest
Even
—
MIA gets 0.0 points for home field.
Quarterback
not priced
—
Usual starters on both sides — Malik Willis and Geno Smith — no adjustment.
Passing game
Slight edge
MIA
MIA passing ranks #23, NYJ defends it at #32; the other way NYJ #28 into MIA's #27.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
MIA
MIA rushing ranks #9, NYJ defends it at #21; the other way NYJ #28 into MIA's #20.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
NYJ third-down conversion ranks #26, MIA defends it at #18; the other way MIA #27 into NYJ's #10.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
MIA
MIA −7.6 per game over the last five, NYJ −26.8.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
New York JetsMiami Dolphins
1361 Elo · #30
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
MIA +4.9 pts
1468 Elo · #21
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
Smith · −5.0 EPA/g
QuarterbackStarter's value against what the team usually gets at quarterback. Only moves when someone other than the usual starter plays.
even
Willis · +13.4 EPA/g
−3.1 pts vs MIA D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
MIA +5.8 pts
+2.8 pts vs NYJ D
L L L L L · −26.8
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
MIA +9.6 pts
L W L L W · −7.6
6 out/IR
InjuriesCount of players listed Out or on IR. Not priced beyond the quarterback.
not priced
6 out/IR
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
nflverse play-by-play + FTN charting · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸MIA yac / completion (#7) against a NYJ defense ranked #30 at stopping it
- ▸MIA explosive rush rate (#1) against a NYJ defense ranked #24 at stopping it
- ▸MIA explosive pass rate (#13) against a NYJ defense ranked #31 at stopping it
- ▸MIA yards / rush (#3) against a NYJ defense ranked #20 at stopping it
- ▸NYJ defense (#10 third-down conversion allowed) against a MIA offense ranked #27
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
New York Jets offense vs Miami Dolphins defense
ranks of 32| NYJ off | MIA def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 61% | 58% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 56% | 54% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 46% | 54% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | −8.8% | −2.9% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 28.7 | 31.3 | · |
| No-huddle | 10% | 12% | · |
| Shotgun | 74% | 66% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 18% | 21% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 9% | 7% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 7% | 8% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 63% | 55% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 30% | 33% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.35 | 4.35 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | −0.15#28▼ | +0.17#27▲ | · |
| Pass success rate | 40%#30▼ | 52%#32 | · |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 4.6%#32▼ | 8.8%#24▲ | MIA |
| Yards / dropback | 4.6#32▼ | 6.7#26 | MIA |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 6.9 | 7.3 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 9% | 10% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 56% | 59% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | −4.1#31▼ | +7.1#32▲ | · |
| YAC / completion | 4.4#30 | 5.4#24 | MIA |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 9.9%#30 | 6.6%#14▼ | MIA |
| Scramble rate | 9.4% | 6.4% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.6%#26 | 1.8%#24 | · |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 40 · M 18 · R 42 | L 40 · M 18 · R 42 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | −0.11#28 | −0.03#20▲ | MIA |
| Rush success rate | 41%#17 | 43%#22 | · |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 9.9%#15▼ | 12.1%#28 | NYJ |
| Yards / rush | 4.3#15 | 4.6#25 | NYJ |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 43 · M 24 · R 33 | L 31 · M 34 · R 35 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 35%#26 | 40%#18 | MIA |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 45%#31▼ | 60%#23▲ | MIA |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.24#22 | 1.06#21 | · |
| Plays / game | 59 | 59 | · |
Miami Dolphins offense vs New York Jets defense
ranks of 32| MIA off | NYJ def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 56% | 55% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 50% | 49% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 50% | 54% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | −5.8% | −2.9% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 31.2 | 30.4 | · |
| No-huddle | 4% | 6% | · |
| Shotgun | 72% | 59% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 27% | 30% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 6% | 6% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 12% | 11% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 71% | 62% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 23% | 28% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.23 | 4.36 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | −0.01#23▼ | +0.29#32▲ | MIA |
| Pass success rate | 43%#25 | 49%#24 | · |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 8.1%#13▲ | 10.4%#31 | MIA |
| Yards / dropback | 5.9#24 | 6.9#28 | · |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 7.0 | 7.3 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 10% | 10% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 54% | 54% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | +1.7#9▼ | +1.5#21▲ | MIA |
| YAC / completion | 5.6#7 | 6.1#30 | MIA |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 7.2%#21 | 4.5%#29 | MIA |
| Scramble rate | 2.8% | 6.4% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.8%#31 | 0.0%#32 | · |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 43 · M 18 · R 39 | L 41 · M 21 · R 38 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | −0.03#9▼ | −0.02#21▼ | MIA |
| Rush success rate | 40%#22 | 42%#18 | · |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 13.4%#1▼ | 11.4%#24 | MIA |
| Yards / rush | 4.8#3 | 4.4#20 | MIA |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 38 · M 22 · R 40 | L 42 · M 17 · R 40 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 35%#27 | 38%#10 | NYJ |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 56%#19 | 65%#28 | MIA |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.35#28 | 0.18#32▲ | · |
| Plays / game | 55 | 62 | · |
Route-by-route data (which routes are run and how coverage plays them) is not published anywhere public — it is sold by PFF and NGS. Throw depth, direction, play-action, RPO, screens, motion and pass-rush counts above are the public pieces of the same picture.
New York Jets · key players
- Justin Fields QB14.2/22.7 · 140 yds/g · 7-1 TD-INT · −0.10 EPA/db
- Listed starter this week: Geno Smith — line above is Justin Fields's.
- Mason Taylor TE5.0 tgt/g · 17% share · 28 yds/g · 1 TD · aDOT 5.8
- Garrett Wilson WR8.4 tgt/g · 35% share · 56 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 9.1
- Adonai Mitchell WR7.3 tgt/g · 24% share · 38 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 14.6
- John Metchie III WR4.9 tgt/g · 17% share · 28 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 6.0
- Breece Hall RBQuestionable15.2 car/g · 67 yds/g · 4.4 ypc · 4 TD · −0.09 EPA/car
- Isaiah Davis RBQuestionable2.9 car/g · 16 yds/g · 5.5 ypc · 1 TD · −0.08 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Miami Dolphins · key players
- Tua Tagovailoa QB18.6/27.4 · 190 yds/g · 20-15 TD-INT · +0.03 EPA/db
- Listed starter this week: Malik Willis — line above is Tua Tagovailoa's.
- Jaylen Waddle WR6.3 tgt/g · 23% share · 57 yds/g · 6 TD · aDOT 13.1
- Malik Washington WR3.8 tgt/g · 14% share · 19 yds/g · 3 TD · aDOT 5.2
- Darren Waller TE4.3 tgt/g · 16% share · 35 yds/g · 6 TD · aDOT 10.6
- Greg Dulcich TE3.7 tgt/g · 15% share · 37 yds/g · 1 TD · aDOT 4.7
- De'Von Achane RB14.9 car/g · 84 yds/g · 5.7 ypc · 8 TD · +0.06 EPA/car
- Jaylen Wright RB7.8 car/g · 32 yds/g · 4.1 ypc · 2 TD · −0.08 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Season
| NYJ | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-14 | Record | 7-10 |
| 17.6 | Points for / game | 20.4 |
| 29.6 | Points against / game | 24.9 |
| 2-7 / 1-7 | Home / road | 5-4 / 2-6 |
| 7-10 | Against the spread | 8-9 |
| 11-6 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 10-7 |
| L L L L L | Last 5 | L W L L W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| NYJ | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1361 | Elo | 1468 |
| #30 of 32 | Rank | #21 of 32 |
| −4.9 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −2.9 |
| −5.6 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −1.8 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Efficiency
| NYJ | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.130 | EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play, nflverse. The single best efficiency number. | -0.008 |
| 0.135 | EPA / play allowed | 0.085 |
| 164 | Pass yards / game | 195 |
| 123 | Rush yards / game | 120 |
| 226 | Pass yards allowed | 231 |
| 139 | Rush yards allowed | 132 |
| 1.1 / 0.5 | Turnovers / takeaways | 1.3 / 1.2 |
| 3.5 / 1.5 | Sacks allowed / made | 2.2 / 2.3 |
| 14.8 | First downs / game | 16.4 |
| 53 | Penalty yards / game | 48 |
| −5.0 · #44 of 52 | QB EPA / gameThe listed starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games. | +13.4 |
Efficiency is from the 2025 season until this one has games. Source: nflverse.
Head to head
| 2025 | MIA 34 at NYJ 10 | MIA · MIA covered |
| 2025 | NYJ 21 at MIA 27 | MIA · MIA covered |
| 2024 | MIA 20 at NYJ 32 | NYJ · NYJ covered |
| 2024 | NYJ 26 at MIA 32 | MIA · NYJ covered |
| 2023 | NYJ 0 at MIA 30 | MIA · MIA covered |
| 2023 | MIA 34 at NYJ 13 | MIA · MIA covered |
| 2022 | NYJ 6 at MIA 11 | MIA · MIA covered |
| 2022 | MIA 17 at NYJ 40 | NYJ · NYJ covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- MIA +4.9 pts
- Home field
- MIA +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Quarterback
- Usual starters — no adjustment
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
New York Jets injuries
- Tyler Baron DEOut
- Anez Cooper GInjured Reserve
- Chip Trayanum RBInjured Reserve
- Kingsley Jonathan DEInjured Reserve
- Tre Brown CBInjured Reserve
- VJ Payne SInjured Reserve
- Breece Hall RBQuestionable
- D'Angelo Ponds CBQuestionable
- Isaiah Davis RBQuestionable
- Joseph Ossai DEQuestionable
- Kenyon Sadiq TEQuestionable
- Nahshon Wright CBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Miami Dolphins injuries
- Darrell Baker Jr. CBOut
- Storm Duck CBOut
- Ben Sims TEInjured Reserve
- Cole Turner TEInjured Reserve
- Kenneth Grant DTInjured Reserve
- Trey Moore LBInjured Reserve
- Jacob Rodriguez LBQuestionable
- Ollie Gordon II RBQuestionable
- Will Kacmarek TEQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.