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Baltimore Ravens
8-9 last yr · #12 Elo
at
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
Huntington Bank Field
Cleveland Browns
5-12 last yr · #27 Elo
Spread BAL -6.5Total 44.5Moneyline BAL -250 · CLE +205
The read
On rating alone Baltimore Ravens are 5.7 points better (#12 vs #27 of 32), and CLE add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: BAL rushing ranks #3, CLE defends it at #15; the other way CLE #25 into BAL's #11.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
BAL
BAL rated 5.7 points better on Elo (#27 vs #12).
Home & rest
Even
—
CLE gets 0.0 points for home field.
Quarterback
not priced
—
Usual starters on both sides — Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson — no adjustment.
Passing game
Slight edge
CLE
CLE passing ranks #32, BAL defends it at #21; the other way BAL #20 into CLE's #3.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
BAL
BAL rushing ranks #3, CLE defends it at #15; the other way CLE #25 into BAL's #11.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
BAL
BAL third-down conversion ranks #12, CLE defends it at #8; the other way CLE #30 into BAL's #11.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
BAL
CLE −4.8 per game over the last five, BAL +6.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
BAL
Consensus has BAL by 6.5.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Baltimore RavensCleveland Browns
1549 Elo · #12
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
BAL +5.7 pts
1424 Elo · #27
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
Jackson · +3.0 EPA/g
QuarterbackStarter's value against what the team usually gets at quarterback. Only moves when someone other than the usual starter plays.
even
Deshaun Watson
−0.1 pts vs CLE D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
BAL +5.1 pts
−5.2 pts vs BAL D
L W L W L · +6.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
BAL +5.4 pts
W W L L L · −4.8
5 out/IR
InjuriesCount of players listed Out or on IR. Not priced beyond the quarterback.
not priced
8 out/IR
BAL -6.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
BAL +6.5 pts
CLE +6.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
nflverse play-by-play + FTN charting · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸CLE defense (#2 sack rate generated) against a BAL offense ranked #27
- ▸BAL defense (#4 red-zone touchdown rate allowed) against a CLE offense ranked #25
- ▸BAL defense (#11 third-down conversion allowed) against a CLE offense ranked #30
- ▸CLE defense (#3 epa / dropback allowed) against a BAL offense ranked #20
- ▸BAL defense (#14 rush success rate allowed) against a CLE offense ranked #31
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Baltimore Ravens offense vs Cleveland Browns defense
ranks of 32| BAL off | CLE def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 53% | 57% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 45% | 50% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 46% | 51% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | −8.8% | −5.6% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 31.0 | 31.3 | · |
| No-huddle | 3% | 5% | · |
| Shotgun | 65% | 64% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 22% | 22% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 6% | 7% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 7% | 10% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 54% | 59% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 34% | 28% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.44 | 4.37 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | +0.02#20▲ | −0.11#3▼ | CLE |
| Pass success rate | 47%#12 | 43%#8 | · |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 8.8%#11▼ | 7.8%#14▼ | · |
| Yards / dropback | 6.6#11 | 5.4#3 | CLE |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 8.2 | 7.5 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 11% | 13% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 52% | 54% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | +3.0#6▲ | +0.5#16▼ | BAL |
| YAC / completion | 4.9#22 | 5.3#23 | · |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 9.0%#27 | 9.4%#2▼ | CLE |
| Scramble rate | 7.4% | 4.3% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.6%#24▼ | 2.3%#15▼ | CLE |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 35 · M 24 · R 41 | L 36 · M 18 · R 46 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | +0.05#3▲ | −0.07#15▲ | BAL |
| Rush success rate | 42%#12 | 37%#5▲ | CLE |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 13.0%#2 | 9.3%#15▲ | BAL |
| Yards / rush | 5.2#1 | 4.2#17▲ | BAL |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 44 · M 17 · R 40 | L 27 · M 26 · R 46 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 41%#12▲ | 37%#8 | · |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 47%#27▲ | 58%#17 | CLE |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.29#24 | 0.94#24▼ | · |
| Plays / game | 56 | 58 | · |
Cleveland Browns offense vs Baltimore Ravens defense
ranks of 32| CLE off | BAL def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 62% | 65% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 57% | 60% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 53% | 56% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | −3.7% | +1.0% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 29.1 | 29.2 | · |
| No-huddle | 9% | 8% | · |
| Shotgun | 68% | 70% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 22% | 19% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 4% | 8% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 9% | 8% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 49% | 51% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 24% | 24% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.28 | 4.23 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | −0.25#32 | +0.09#21▲ | BAL |
| Pass success rate | 34%#32 | 46%#18 | BAL |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 5.5%#30 | 9.8%#28▲ | · |
| Yards / dropback | 4.8#30 | 6.5#22 | BAL |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 6.8 | 8.2 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 10% | 13% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 56% | 51% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | −5.7#32▲ | +2.4#27▲ | · |
| YAC / completion | 5.3#12 | 4.8#10 | · |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 8.0%#25▲ | 4.3%#31▲ | CLE |
| Scramble rate | 5.0% | 5.6% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.2%#29▲ | 1.8%#23 | BAL |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 38 · M 26 · R 36 | L 37 · M 21 · R 42 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | −0.09#25▲ | −0.09#11▼ | BAL |
| Rush success rate | 35%#31 | 41%#14 | BAL |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 8.1%#27 | 10.5%#21 | BAL |
| Yards / rush | 3.6#30 | 4.1#16 | BAL |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 31 · M 28 · R 41 | L 43 · M 16 · R 41 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 34%#30▲ | 38%#11 | BAL |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 53%#25▼ | 51%#4 | BAL |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.41#29 | 1.12#17 | BAL |
| Plays / game | 60 | 63 | · |
Route-by-route data (which routes are run and how coverage plays them) is not published anywhere public — it is sold by PFF and NGS. Throw depth, direction, play-action, RPO, screens, motion and pass-rush counts above are the public pieces of the same picture.
Baltimore Ravens · key players
- Lamar Jackson QB14.8/23.2 · 196 yds/g · 21-7 TD-INT · +0.05 EPA/db
- Zay Flowers WRQuestionable6.9 tgt/g · 30% share · 71 yds/g · 5 TD · aDOT 10.2
- Mark Andrews TE4.1 tgt/g · 17% share · 25 yds/g · 5 TD · aDOT 7.3
- DeAndre Hopkins WR2.3 tgt/g · 10% share · 19 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 13.2
- Rashod Bateman WR2.9 tgt/g · 12% share · 17 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 12.3
- Derrick Henry RB18.1 car/g · 94 yds/g · 5.2 ypc · 16 TD · +0.03 EPA/car
- Keaton Mitchell RB4.9 car/g · 28 yds/g · 5.8 ypc · 1 TD · +0.04 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Cleveland Browns · key players
- Shedeur Sanders QB15.0/26.5 · 175 yds/g · 7-10 TD-INT · −0.25 EPA/db
- Listed starter this week: Deshaun Watson — line above is Shedeur Sanders's.
- Harold Fannin Jr. TE6.7 tgt/g · 22% share · 46 yds/g · 6 TD · aDOT 6.0
- Jerry Jeudy WR6.2 tgt/g · 21% share · 35 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 12.2
- David Njoku TE4.4 tgt/g · 12% share · 27 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 5.3
- Isaiah Bond WRQuestionable2.9 tgt/g · 9% share · 23 yds/g · 0 TD · aDOT 17.1
- Quinshon Judkins RB16.4 car/g · 59 yds/g · 3.6 ypc · 7 TD · −0.11 EPA/car
- Dylan Sampson RB4.3 car/g · 12 yds/g · 2.7 ypc · 0 TD · −0.26 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Season
| BAL | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 8-9 | Record | 5-12 |
| 24.9 | Points for / game | 16.4 |
| 23.4 | Points against / game | 22.3 |
| 3-6 / 5-3 | Home / road | 3-6 / 2-6 |
| 6-11 | Against the spread | 8-9 |
| 11-6 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 8-9 |
| L W L W L | Last 5 | W W L L L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| BAL | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 1549 | Elo | 1424 |
| #12 of 32 | Rank | #27 of 32 |
| +1.6 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −4.5 |
| +0.8 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +1.8 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Efficiency
| BAL | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.048 | EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play, nflverse. The single best efficiency number. | -0.181 |
| 0.018 | EPA / play allowed | -0.093 |
| 193 | Pass yards / game | 185 |
| 157 | Rush yards / game | 97 |
| 259 | Pass yards allowed | 189 |
| 107 | Rush yards allowed | 116 |
| 1.1 / 1.5 | Turnovers / takeaways | 1.2 / 1.5 |
| 2.6 / 1.8 | Sacks allowed / made | 3.0 / 3.1 |
| 16.9 | First downs / game | 13.8 |
| 44 | Penalty yards / game | 49 |
| +3.0 · #18 of 52 | QB EPA / gameThe listed starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games. | — |
Efficiency is from the 2025 season until this one has games. Source: nflverse.
Head to head
| 2025 | BAL 23 at CLE 16 | BAL · CLE covered |
| 2025 | CLE 17 at BAL 41 | BAL · BAL covered |
| 2024 | CLE 10 at BAL 35 | BAL · BAL covered |
| 2024 | BAL 24 at CLE 29 | CLE · CLE covered |
| 2023 | CLE 33 at BAL 31 | CLE · CLE covered |
| 2023 | BAL 28 at CLE 3 | BAL · BAL covered |
| 2022 | BAL 3 at CLE 13 | CLE · CLE covered |
| 2022 | CLE 20 at BAL 23 | BAL · CLE covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- BAL +5.7 pts
- Home field
- CLE +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Quarterback
- Usual starters — no adjustment
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- BAL -6.5
- Total
- 44.5
- Moneyline
- BAL -250 · CLE +205
| Book | CLE spread | Total | BAL ML | CLE ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | -7 (-105) | 45.5 (-110/-110) | — | +260 |
| williamhill_us | -7 (-115) | 42.5 (-115/-115) | — | +235 |
Baltimore Ravens injuries
- Adam Randall RBInjured Reserve
- Bilhal Kone CBInjured Reserve
- Danny Pinter CInjured Reserve
- Jahquez Robinson SInjured Reserve
- Skylar Thompson QBInjured Reserve
- Aeneas Peebles DTQuestionable
- Jay Higgins IV LBQuestionable
- Nnamdi Madubuike DTQuestionable
- Zay Flowers WRQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Cleveland Browns injuries
- Joe Royer TEOut
- Alex Wright DEInjured Reserve
- Dillon Gabriel QBInjured Reserve
- Edefuan Ulofoshio LBInjured Reserve
- Elijah Chatman DTInjured Reserve
- Jamari Thrash WRInjured Reserve
- Kalia Davis DTInjured Reserve
- Travis Bell DTInjured Reserve
- Isaiah Bond WRQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.