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Cleveland Browns
5-12 last yr · #27 Elo
at
Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
MetLife Stadium
New York Jets
3-14 last yr · #30 Elo
Spread NYJ -1.5Total 39.5Moneyline CLE +110 · NYJ -130
The read
On rating alone Cleveland Browns are 2.9 points better (#27 vs #30 of 32), and NYJ add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: CLE passing ranks #32, NYJ defends it at #32; the other way NYJ #28 into CLE's #3.
Who has the edge
Rating
Slight edge
CLE
CLE rated 2.9 points better on Elo (#30 vs #27).
Home & rest
Even
—
NYJ gets 0.0 points for home field.
Quarterback
not priced
—
Usual starters on both sides — Geno Smith and Deshaun Watson — no adjustment.
Passing game
Clear edge
CLE
CLE passing ranks #32, NYJ defends it at #32; the other way NYJ #28 into CLE's #3.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
CLE
CLE rushing ranks #25, NYJ defends it at #21; the other way NYJ #28 into CLE's #15.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
CLE
NYJ third-down conversion ranks #26, CLE defends it at #8; the other way CLE #30 into NYJ's #10.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
CLE
NYJ −26.8 per game over the last five, CLE −4.8.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
NYJ
Consensus has NYJ by 1.5.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Cleveland BrownsNew York Jets
1424 Elo · #27
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
CLE +2.9 pts
1361 Elo · #30
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
Deshaun Watson
QuarterbackStarter's value against what the team usually gets at quarterback. Only moves when someone other than the usual starter plays.
even
Smith · −5.0 EPA/g
+1.2 pts vs NYJ D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
CLE +7.9 pts
−6.7 pts vs CLE D
W W L L L · −4.8
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
CLE +11.0 pts
L L L L L · −26.8
8 out/IR
InjuriesCount of players listed Out or on IR. Not priced beyond the quarterback.
not priced
6 out/IR
CLE +1.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
NYJ +1.5 pts
NYJ -1.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
nflverse play-by-play + FTN charting · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸CLE defense (#3 yards / dropback allowed) against a NYJ offense ranked #32
- ▸CLE defense (#2 sack rate generated) against a NYJ offense ranked #30
- ▸CLE defense (#3 epa / dropback allowed) against a NYJ offense ranked #28
- ▸CLE defense (#8 pass success rate allowed) against a NYJ offense ranked #30
- ▸NYJ defense (#10 third-down conversion allowed) against a CLE offense ranked #30
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Cleveland Browns offense vs New York Jets defense
ranks of 32| CLE off | NYJ def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 62% | 55% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 57% | 49% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 53% | 54% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | −3.7% | −2.9% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 29.1 | 30.4 | · |
| No-huddle | 9% | 6% | · |
| Shotgun | 68% | 59% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 22% | 30% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 4% | 6% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 9% | 11% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 49% | 62% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 24% | 28% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.28 | 4.36 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | −0.25#32 | +0.29#32▲ | · |
| Pass success rate | 34%#32 | 49%#24 | NYJ |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 5.5%#30 | 10.4%#31 | · |
| Yards / dropback | 4.8#30 | 6.9#28 | · |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 6.8 | 7.3 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 10% | 10% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 56% | 54% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | −5.7#32▲ | +1.5#21▲ | NYJ |
| YAC / completion | 5.3#12 | 6.1#30 | CLE |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 8.0%#25▲ | 4.5%#29 | · |
| Scramble rate | 5.0% | 6.4% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.2%#29▲ | 0.0%#32 | · |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 38 · M 26 · R 36 | L 41 · M 21 · R 38 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | −0.09#25▲ | −0.02#21▼ | · |
| Rush success rate | 35%#31 | 42%#18 | NYJ |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 8.1%#27 | 11.4%#24 | · |
| Yards / rush | 3.6#30 | 4.4#20 | NYJ |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 31 · M 28 · R 41 | L 42 · M 17 · R 40 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 34%#30▲ | 38%#10 | NYJ |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 53%#25▼ | 65%#28 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.41#29 | 0.18#32▲ | · |
| Plays / game | 60 | 62 | · |
New York Jets offense vs Cleveland Browns defense
ranks of 32| NYJ off | CLE def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate facedDropbacks as a share of plays. On the defense column: what opponents do against them. | 61% | 57% | · |
| Early-down pass rateFirst and second down only — the cleanest read on run-heavy vs pass-heavy. | 56% | 50% | · |
| Neutral-script pass rateEarly downs with win probability between 20% and 80%: intent, not catch-up mode. | 46% | 51% | · |
| Pass rate over expectedHow much more (or less) a team passes than the down, distance, score and clock predict. nflverse xpass. | −8.8% | −5.6% | · |
| Seconds per playTime of possession divided by plays — lower is faster. | 28.7 | 31.3 | · |
| No-huddle | 10% | 5% | · |
| Shotgun | 74% | 64% | · |
| Play-action rate / Play-action facedShare of dropbacks with a play fake (FTN charting). | 18% | 22% | · |
| RPO rate / RPOs faced | 9% | 7% | · |
| Screen rate / Screens faced | 7% | 10% | · |
| Pre-snap motion / Motion faced | 63% | 59% | · |
| Blitzes faced / Blitz rateFive or more pass rushers (FTN). On the offense column: how often opponents blitz them. | 30% | 28% | · |
| Pass rushers faced / Avg pass rushers | 4.35 | 4.37 | · |
| Passing | |||
| EPA / dropbackThe single best pass-efficiency number; on the defense column, what they allow. | −0.15#28▼ | −0.11#3▼ | CLE |
| Pass success rate | 40%#30▼ | 43%#8 | CLE |
| Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. | 4.6%#32▼ | 7.8%#14▼ | CLE |
| Yards / dropback | 4.6#32▼ | 5.4#3 | CLE |
| Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at. | 6.9 | 7.5 | · |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air) | 9% | 13% | · |
| Short throws (≤5 air) | 56% | 54% | · |
| Completion % over expectednflverse CPOE, per attempt. Defense column: what they allow. | −4.1#31▼ | +0.5#16▼ | CLE |
| YAC / completion | 4.4#30 | 5.3#23 | CLE |
| Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create. | 9.9%#30 | 9.4%#2▼ | CLE |
| Scramble rate | 9.4% | 4.3% | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.6%#26 | 2.3%#15▼ | CLE |
| Throws left / middle / rightDirection shares are shown in full on the row. | L 40 · M 18 · R 42 | L 36 · M 18 · R 46 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| EPA / rush | −0.11#28 | −0.07#15▲ | CLE |
| Rush success rate | 41%#17 | 37%#5▲ | CLE |
| Explosive rush rateRushes of 10+ yards. | 9.9%#15▼ | 9.3%#15▲ | · |
| Yards / rush | 4.3#15 | 4.2#17▲ | · |
| Runs left / middle / right | L 43 · M 24 · R 33 | L 27 · M 26 · R 46 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Third-down conversion | 35%#26 | 37%#8 | CLE |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 45%#31▼ | 58%#17 | CLE |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.24#22 | 0.94#24▼ | · |
| Plays / game | 59 | 58 | · |
Route-by-route data (which routes are run and how coverage plays them) is not published anywhere public — it is sold by PFF and NGS. Throw depth, direction, play-action, RPO, screens, motion and pass-rush counts above are the public pieces of the same picture.
Cleveland Browns · key players
- Shedeur Sanders QB15.0/26.5 · 175 yds/g · 7-10 TD-INT · −0.25 EPA/db
- Listed starter this week: Deshaun Watson — line above is Shedeur Sanders's.
- Harold Fannin Jr. TE6.7 tgt/g · 22% share · 46 yds/g · 6 TD · aDOT 6.0
- Jerry Jeudy WR6.2 tgt/g · 21% share · 35 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 12.2
- David Njoku TE4.4 tgt/g · 12% share · 27 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 5.3
- Isaiah Bond WRQuestionable2.9 tgt/g · 9% share · 23 yds/g · 0 TD · aDOT 17.1
- Quinshon Judkins RB16.4 car/g · 59 yds/g · 3.6 ypc · 7 TD · −0.11 EPA/car
- Dylan Sampson RB4.3 car/g · 12 yds/g · 2.7 ypc · 0 TD · −0.26 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
New York Jets · key players
- Justin Fields QB14.2/22.7 · 140 yds/g · 7-1 TD-INT · −0.10 EPA/db
- Listed starter this week: Geno Smith — line above is Justin Fields's.
- Mason Taylor TE5.0 tgt/g · 17% share · 28 yds/g · 1 TD · aDOT 5.8
- Garrett Wilson WR8.4 tgt/g · 35% share · 56 yds/g · 4 TD · aDOT 9.1
- Adonai Mitchell WR7.3 tgt/g · 24% share · 38 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 14.6
- John Metchie III WR4.9 tgt/g · 17% share · 28 yds/g · 2 TD · aDOT 6.0
- Breece Hall RBQuestionable15.2 car/g · 67 yds/g · 4.4 ypc · 4 TD · −0.09 EPA/car
- Isaiah Davis RBQuestionable2.9 car/g · 16 yds/g · 5.5 ypc · 1 TD · −0.08 EPA/car
2025 season, per game. Targets ranked by volume, rushers by carries.nflverse weekly player stats. Target share is the player's average share of his team's targets in the games he played. A player who changed teams carries his own games from last season.
Season
| CLE | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-12 | Record | 3-14 |
| 16.4 | Points for / game | 17.6 |
| 22.3 | Points against / game | 29.6 |
| 3-6 / 2-6 | Home / road | 2-7 / 1-7 |
| 8-9 | Against the spread | 7-10 |
| 8-9 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 11-6 |
| W W L L L | Last 5 | L L L L L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| CLE | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 1424 | Elo | 1361 |
| #27 of 32 | Rank | #30 of 32 |
| −4.5 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −4.9 |
| +1.8 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −5.6 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Efficiency
| CLE | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.181 | EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play, nflverse. The single best efficiency number. | -0.130 |
| -0.093 | EPA / play allowed | 0.135 |
| 185 | Pass yards / game | 164 |
| 97 | Rush yards / game | 123 |
| 189 | Pass yards allowed | 226 |
| 116 | Rush yards allowed | 139 |
| 1.2 / 1.5 | Turnovers / takeaways | 1.1 / 0.5 |
| 3.0 / 3.1 | Sacks allowed / made | 3.5 / 1.5 |
| 13.8 | First downs / game | 14.8 |
| 49 | Penalty yards / game | 53 |
| — | QB EPA / gameThe listed starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games. | −5.0 · #44 of 52 |
Efficiency is from the 2025 season until this one has games. Source: nflverse.
Head to head
| 2025 | CLE 20 at NYJ 27 | NYJ · NYJ covered |
| 2023 | NYJ 20 at CLE 37 | CLE · CLE covered |
| 2022 | NYJ 31 at CLE 30 | NYJ · NYJ covered |
| 2020 | CLE 16 at NYJ 23 | NYJ · NYJ covered |
| 2019 | CLE 23 at NYJ 3 | CLE · CLE covered |
| 2018 | NYJ 17 at CLE 21 | CLE · CLE covered |
| 2017 | NYJ 17 at CLE 14 | NYJ · NYJ covered |
| 2016 | NYJ 31 at CLE 28 | NYJ · NYJ covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- CLE +2.9 pts
- Home field
- NYJ +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Quarterback
- Usual starters — no adjustment
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- NYJ -1.5
- Total
- 39.5
- Moneyline
- CLE +110 · NYJ -130
| Book | NYJ spread | Total | CLE ML | NYJ ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | +2.5 (-110) | 40.5 (-110/-110) | — | -135 |
| williamhill_us | +2.5 (-115) | 38.5 (-115/-115) | — | -150 |
Cleveland Browns injuries
- Joe Royer TEOut
- Alex Wright DEInjured Reserve
- Dillon Gabriel QBInjured Reserve
- Edefuan Ulofoshio LBInjured Reserve
- Elijah Chatman DTInjured Reserve
- Jamari Thrash WRInjured Reserve
- Kalia Davis DTInjured Reserve
- Travis Bell DTInjured Reserve
- Isaiah Bond WRQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
New York Jets injuries
- Tyler Baron DEOut
- Anez Cooper GInjured Reserve
- Chip Trayanum RBInjured Reserve
- Kingsley Jonathan DEInjured Reserve
- Tre Brown CBInjured Reserve
- VJ Payne SInjured Reserve
- Breece Hall RBQuestionable
- D'Angelo Ponds CBQuestionable
- Isaiah Davis RBQuestionable
- Joseph Ossai DEQuestionable
- Kenyon Sadiq TEQuestionable
- Nahshon Wright CBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. The model prices the quarterback; other absences are context it does not yet price.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.