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Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Sun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM ET · MetLife Stadium · 79° · Intermittent clouds
DAL -2.5 · O/U 48.5
DAL -148 · NYG +124
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
NYG +124
53%
model margin NYG by 1.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
NYG +2.5
52%
3.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 48.5
52%
model total 53.0
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 1454 | 1.9 | -5.2 | — | 0 |
| New York Giants | 1423 | 0.1 | -0.8 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- DAL +31 Elo
- Home field
- NYG +2.5 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- NYG by 1.1
- Market spread
- DAL -2.5
- Model total
- 53.0 vs 48.5
- Moneyline
- DAL -148 · NYG +124
Dallas Cowboys injuries
- Devin Moore CBInjured Reserve
- DJ Rogers TEInjured Reserve
- Kelvin Gilliam Jr. DTInjured Reserve
- Marist Liufau LBInjured Reserve
- Princeton Fant TEInjured Reserve
- Jonathan Bullard DTQuestionable
- Tyler Guyton OTQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
New York Giants injuries
- Calvin Austin III WRInjured Reserve
- Jarrick Bernard-Converse CBInjured Reserve
- Korie Black CBInjured Reserve
- Roy Robertson-Harris DTInjured Reserve
- Colton Hood CBQuestionable
- Dru Phillips CBQuestionable
- Francis Mauigoa OTQuestionable
- Greg Newsome II CBQuestionable
- John Michael Schmitz Jr. CQuestionable
- Malik Nabers WRQuestionable
- Paulson Adebo CBQuestionable
- Theo Johnson TEQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.