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Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field · 85° · Intermittent clouds
PHI -5.5 · O/U 44.5
WSH +180 · PHI -218
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
PHI -218
69%
model margin PHI by 6.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
PHI -5.5
51%
1.3 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 44.5
51%
model total 41.3
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | 1461 | -0.8 | -2.3 | — | 0 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 1555 | -1.9 | 3.3 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- PHI +94 Elo
- Home field
- PHI +2.5 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- PHI by 6.8
- Market spread
- PHI -5.5
- Model total
- 41.3 vs 44.5
- Moneyline
- WSH +180 · PHI -218
Washington Commanders injuries
- Deatrich Wise Jr. DEOut
- Curtis Jacobs LBInjured Reserve
- Jacoby Jones WRInjured Reserve
- Jeremy McNichols RBInjured Reserve
- Jer'Zhan Newton DTInjured Reserve
- Laremy Tunsil OTInjured Reserve
- Quentin Moore TEInjured Reserve
- Trey Amos CBInjured Reserve
- Ben Sinnott TEQuestionable
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt RBQuestionable
- Marcus Mariota QBQuestionable
- Rachaad White RBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Philadelphia Eagles injuries
- Jonathan Greenard LBOut
- Andre' Sam SInjured Reserve
- Grant Calcaterra TEInjured Reserve
- Jakorian Bennett CBInjured Reserve
- Johnny Wilson WRInjured Reserve
- Byron Young DTQuestionable
- Cooper DeJean CBQuestionable
- Eli Stowers TEQuestionable
- Jonathan Jones CBQuestionable
- Markel Bell OTQuestionable
- Micah Morris GQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.