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Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium · Indoors
LV -3.5 · O/U 40.5
MIA +164 · LV -198
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
MIA +164
57%
model margin MIA by 2.3
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
MIA +3.5
53%
5.8 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Over 40.5
50%
model total 41.4
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 1456 | -2.9 | -1.8 | — | 0 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 1349 | -5.2 | -2.2 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- MIA +106 Elo
- Home field
- LV +2.5 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- Indoors
- Model margin
- MIA by 2.3
- Market spread
- LV -3.5
- Model total
- 41.4 vs 40.5
- Moneyline
- MIA +164 · LV -198
Miami Dolphins injuries
- Darrell Baker Jr. CBOut
- Storm Duck CBOut
- Ben Sims TEInjured Reserve
- Cole Turner TEInjured Reserve
- Kenneth Grant DTInjured Reserve
- Trey Moore LBInjured Reserve
- Jacob Rodriguez LBQuestionable
- Ollie Gordon II RBQuestionable
- Will Kacmarek TEQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Las Vegas Raiders injuries
- Brennan Jackson LBInjured Reserve
- Carter Runyon TEInjured Reserve
- Chigozie Anusiem CBInjured Reserve
- Chris Collier RBInjured Reserve
- Dont'e Thornton Jr. WRInjured Reserve
- Justin Pickett GInjured Reserve
- Keyron Crawford DEInjured Reserve
- Ashton Jeanty RBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.