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Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · EverBank Stadium · 92° · Intermittent clouds
JAX -7.5 · O/U 40.5
CLE +320 · JAX -410
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
JAX -410
75%
model margin JAX by 9.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
JAX -7.5
51%
1.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Under 40.5
50%
model total 40.3
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 1422 | -4.5 | 1.8 | — | 0 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1567 | 4.1 | 2.6 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- JAX +145 Elo
- Home field
- JAX +2.5 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- JAX by 9.1
- Market spread
- JAX -7.5
- Model total
- 40.3 vs 40.5
- Moneyline
- CLE +320 · JAX -410
Cleveland Browns injuries
- Joe Royer TEOut
- Alex Wright DEInjured Reserve
- Dillon Gabriel QBInjured Reserve
- Edefuan Ulofoshio LBInjured Reserve
- Elijah Chatman DTInjured Reserve
- Jamari Thrash WRInjured Reserve
- Kalia Davis DTInjured Reserve
- Travis Bell DTInjured Reserve
- Isaiah Bond WRQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Jacksonville Jaguars injuries
- Carter Bradley QBInjured Reserve
- Keivie Rose DTInjured Reserve
- Parker Hughes LBInjured Reserve
- Patrick Mekari GInjured Reserve
- Sam Mustipher CInjured Reserve
- Zach Durfee DEInjured Reserve
- Bhayshul Tuten RBQuestionable
- Jakobi Meyers WRQuestionable
- LeQuint Allen Jr. RBQuestionable
- Wyatt Milum GQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.