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Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Bank of America Stadium · 86° · Mostly sunny
CHI -2.5 · O/U 47.5
CHI -148 · CAR +124
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
CHI -148
56%
model margin CHI by 1.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Coin flip
CAR +2.5
50%
0.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 47.5
52%
model total 42.8
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 1528 | 1.2 | 1.3 | — | 0 |
| Carolina Panthers | 1430 | -2.0 | 0.1 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- CHI +98 Elo
- Home field
- CAR +2.5 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- CHI by 1.9
- Market spread
- CHI -2.5
- Model total
- 42.8 vs 47.5
- Moneyline
- CHI -148 · CAR +124
Chicago Bears injuries
- Kyler Gordon CBOut
- Noah Sewell LBOut
- Shemar Turner DTOut
- Beanie Bishop Jr. CBInjured Reserve
- Brittain Brown RBInjured Reserve
- Coby Bryant SInjured Reserve
- Dontae Manning CBInjured Reserve
- Hayden Large TEInjured Reserve
- Ruben Hyppolite II LBInjured Reserve
- Tony Fields II LBInjured Reserve
- D'Andre Swift RBQuestionable
- Jaylon Johnson CBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Carolina Panthers injuries
- Ikem Ekwonu OTOut
- Taylor Moton OTOut
- Tershawn Wharton DTOut
- Bam Martin-Scott LBInjured Reserve
- Brady Christensen GInjured Reserve
- Trevor Etienne RBInjured Reserve
- Akayleb Evans CBQuestionable
- Chuba Hubbard RBQuestionable
- Derrick Brown DTQuestionable
- Devin Lloyd LBQuestionable
- Haynes King QBQuestionable
- Jaelan Phillips LBQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.