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San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams
Thu, Sep 10, 8:35 PM ET · Melbourne Cricket Ground · Indoors
LAR -3.5 · O/U 48.5
SF +160 · LAR -192
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
LAR -192
56%
model margin LAR by 2.2
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
SF +3.5
51%
1.3 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 48.5
53%
model total 55.2
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 1558 | 2.5 | -1.1 | — | 0 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 1606 | 5.7 | -0.4 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- LAR +48 Elo
- Home field
- Neutral site
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- Indoors
- Model margin
- LAR by 2.2
- Market spread
- LAR -3.5
- Model total
- 55.2 vs 48.5
- Moneyline
- SF +160 · LAR -192
San Francisco 49ers injuries
- Isaac Guerendo RBOut
- Mykel Williams DEOut
- Austen Pleasants OTInjured Reserve
- Brett Toth CInjured Reserve
- Christian Kirk WRInjured Reserve
- Nate Hobbs CBInjured Reserve
- Nick Martin LBInjured Reserve
- Nick Zakelj OTInjured Reserve
- Sam Okuayinonu DTInjured Reserve
- Brayden Willis TEQuestionable
- Christian McCaffrey RBQuestionable
- De'Zhaun Stribling WRQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Los Angeles Rams injuries
- Alex Johnson CBInjured Reserve
- Daniel Rickert DEInjured Reserve
- Justin Dedich GInjured Reserve
- Keagen Trost OTInjured Reserve
- Keir Thomas II LBInjured Reserve
- Matthew Caldwell QBInjured Reserve
- Zech McPhearson CBInjured Reserve
- Alaric Jackson OTQuestionable
- Davis Allen TEQuestionable
- Myles Garrett DEQuestionable
- Puka Nacua WRQuestionable
- Terrance Ferguson TEQuestionable
From ESPN's report. Shown for context — the model does not yet price individual absences, which is the known gap between it and the market.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.