← College Football slate
Incarnate Word Cardinals
0-1 last yr · #113 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 26, 6:00 PM ET
UFCU Stadium
Texas State Bobcats
0-1 · #71 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Texas State Bobcats are 4.3 points better (#71 vs #113 of 240), and TXST add 0.0 for home field.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
TXST
TXST rated 4.3 points better on Elo (#71 vs #113).
Home & rest
Even
—
TXST gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
UIW
TXST −52.0 per game over the last five, UIW −28.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Incarnate Word CardinalsTexas State Bobcats
1447 Elo · #113
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
TXST +4.3 pts
1524 Elo · #71
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
+0.9 pts vs TXST D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
TXST +4.5 pts
+5.4 pts vs UIW D
L · −28.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
UIW +12.0 pts
L · −52.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| UIW | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 20.0 | Points for / game | 7.0 |
| 48.0 | Points against / game | 59.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L | Last 5 | L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| UIW | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1447 | Elo | 1524 |
| #113 of 240 | Rank | #71 of 240 |
| −1.9 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +3.7 |
| −1.7 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −2.8 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1765 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TXST +4.3 pts
- Home field
- TXST +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.