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Texas State Bobcats at #5Texas Longhorns
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 97° · Mostly sunny
TEX -29.5 · O/U 60.5
TXST +2500 · TEX -9000
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
TEX -9000
78%
model margin TEX by 13.4
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
TXST +29.5
55%
16.1 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 60.5
51%
model total 63.8
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas State Bobcats | 1610 | 6.8 | 0.6 | — | 0 |
| Texas Longhorns | 1796 | 9.7 | 9.1 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TEX +186 Elo
- Home field
- TEX +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- TEX by 13.4
- Market spread
- TEX -29.5
- Model total
- 63.8 vs 60.5
- Moneyline
- TXST +2500 · TEX -9000
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.