Probetrics — Sports Analytics

Marshall Thundering Herd

2026: 0-1 · Elo 1430 · #133 of 240 · 0.0 for, 45.0 against · ATS 0-1

Next: vs MTSU · Sep 12

Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.

14301500 = average

Model on this team

Winner calls
1/1
Against the spread
0-1
Avg CLV
0.00 pts
SP+ (2026)
-8.2
SP+ (2025)
-4.5
Talent composite
595
Returning production
99%

How they play

Pass rate
42%
Standard-down share
72%
Plays / game
65
Possession / game
30:05

Offense · best and worst (of 135)

Pass success rate
#16 · 48%
Passing PPA / play
#28 · +0.38
Havoc rate faced
#29 · 13.0%
Yards / rush
#34 · 4.8
Power success
#119 · 63%
Rush explosiveness
#119 · 0.85
Interception rate
#119 · 3.9%
Third-down conversion
#106 · 35%

Defense · best and worst (of 135)

Rush success rate
#11 · 37%
Line yards / rush
#16 · 2.60
Power success
#16 · 63%
Takeaways / game
#19 · 1.75
Pass explosiveness
#132 · 1.83
Yards / pass attempt
#127 · 8.5
Interceptions forced
#112 · 1.6%
Passing PPA / play
#107 · +0.33
2026 schedule
DateOpponentResultLineModelATSCLV
Sep 5W1at#18 Penn State Nittany LionsL 0–45+23.5PSU 79%loss0.0
Sep 12W2vsMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders-17.5MRSH 77%
Sep 19W3atMissouri State Bears
Sep 26W4vsGardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
Oct 3W5atJames Madison Dukes
Oct 10W6vsCoastal Carolina Chanticleers
Oct 20W8vsSouth Alabama Jaguars
Oct 31W9atOld Dominion Monarchs
Nov 7W10atGeorgia Southern Eagles
Nov 14W11vsAppalachian State Mountaineers
Nov 21W12vsGeorgia State Panthers
Nov 28W13atUL Monroe Warhawks

Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 1 played.