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Marshall Thundering Herd at #18Penn State Nittany Lions
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · Beaver Stadium · 74° · Intermittent clouds
PSU -23.5 · O/U 52.5
MRSH +1000 · PSU -1800
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
PSU -1800
79%
model margin PSU by 14.2
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
MRSH +23.5
53%
9.3 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 52.5
51%
model total 53.9
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall Thundering Herd | 1523 | -0.3 | 0.2 | — | 0 |
| Penn State Nittany Lions | 1724 | 7.9 | 10.6 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- PSU +201 Elo
- Home field
- PSU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- PSU by 14.2
- Market spread
- PSU -23.5
- Model total
- 53.9 vs 52.5
- Moneyline
- MRSH +1000 · PSU -1800
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.